Newmarket Real Estate Market Update — July 2026: A Textbook Summer Slowdown, Not a Reversal

Newmarket home sales fell to 81 in July 2026, down about 13% from June — almost exactly the average summer pullback this market has recorded since 2011. Underneath the quieter headline number, inventory is falling from its spring peak, homes that sell are selling faster than a year ago, and failed listings have dropped sharply. The recovery paused for the summer; the data does not show it reversing.

Source: TRREB MLS® data for Newmarket (all property types), July 2026. Analysis by Matthew Gizzie, REALTOR®, Keller Williams Realty Centres, Brokerage.

What happened in the Newmarket real estate market in July 2026?

Newmarket recorded 81 home sales in July 2026 at a median price of $929,369, with 344 active listings at month end. Sales fell about 13% from June's 93 — a decline that looks concerning until you check the historical record: since 2011, the median June-to-July sales change in Newmarket is also roughly −13%. This was seasonality, not deterioration.

The more meaningful signals sit below the headline. Compared with July 2025, active inventory is down 10.9%, homes that sold did so six days faster at the median, and terminated listings — sellers giving up — fell from 131 to 81. Year-to-date sales of 519 are running 4.6% ahead of 2025. Transaction activity is recovering; broad price appreciation is not yet established, and those are two different things.

As Featured In — July 2026

Matthew Gizzie's analysis of the July Newmarket and Aurora housing markets was cited by Newmarket Today and Aurora Today in their July market coverage. The commentary in those columns and the data below come from the same underlying MLS® dataset.

Is the July slowdown unusual? Fifteen years of data say no

This is the single most important finding in this month's report. Newmarket sales fell from 93 in June to 81 in July, a decline of 12.9%. Across the fifteen Junes and Julys from 2011 to 2025, the median June-to-July sales change in Newmarket is −13.0%. July 2026 did not underperform its own history — it matched it almost exactly.

Anyone framing July's lower sales count as the recovery breaking down is measuring a seasonal pattern and calling it a trend. The honest read: this was almost textbook Newmarket summer seasonality. The test of the recovery comes in the fall, not in July.

What happened to inventory?

Active listings ended July at 344, down from the April 2026 peak of 378 and down 10.9% from 386 in July 2025. New listings also cooled: 196 homes came to market in July versus 233 in July 2025, a 15.9% drop. Fewer homes chasing a still-recovering pool of buyers is how absorption improves.

Months of Inventory (MOI) — how long it would theoretically take to sell everything currently listed at the current sales pace, with no new listings — sat at 4.25 months, essentially unchanged from 4.11 a year ago. The Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) — the share of new listings being absorbed by sales — was 41%, identical to July 2025 and at the threshold between a buyer's and balanced market. Newmarket remains a market where buyers hold modest leverage, but no longer one drowning in supply.

The most underappreciated number is terminations: 81 in July 2026 versus 131 in July 2025, a 38% drop. Terminated listings are failed sale attempts — sellers who couldn't meet the market and withdrew. Fewer failures means pricing expectations and market reality are converging. For context on the full year: since December 2025, Newmarket has seen roughly 1,455 new listings, 519 sales and 622 terminations. Terminations still outnumber sales in 2026 — a reminder that this market punishes overpricing — but the July trend is moving the right way.

July 2025 vs. July 2026: fewer sales, but a healthier market underneath

Resist reducing this to "market up" or "market down." Sales volume is lower than July 2025 — but last July was an unusually strong month against 2025's weak spring. What matters is the configuration: less inventory, faster successful sales, dramatically fewer failed listings, and a stable median. That is a market clearing more efficiently at current prices, not a market falling apart.

Newmarket home prices: read the median carefully

The July median of $929,369 is up 0.4% year over year and down 1.5% from June's $943,500. Neither move proves anything on its own. Median prices reflect what sold, not just what homes are worth — and July's sales mix shifted meaningfully toward detached homes, which made up 54 of 81 sales (67%) versus 51 of 96 (53%) in July 2025. A heavier detached mix mechanically lifts the blended median even if no individual home appreciated.

Sellers received a median 98% of list price (SP/LP — sale price as a percentage of list price), and 72% of detached sales still closed below asking. The accurate statement is that prices have stabilized near current levels, with detached showing the firmest floor — not that appreciation has resumed across the board. The property-type breakdown below shows why the distinction matters.

By property type: detached is carrying the market

Detached

Detached is where the constructive data lives. July saw 54 detached sales, up 5.9% from 51 a year ago, at a median of $1,065,000 (+1.4% year over year). Detached homes sold in a median 19 days versus 26 last July, at an average 98.7% of list. Year-to-date detached volume is up 12.2% (331 vs. 295 sales). One caution: the YTD detached median of $1,080,000 sits 10.4% below the 2025 YTD figure — early 2025 included a stronger high-end mix — so the single-month +1.4% should be read as stabilization, not confirmed appreciation.

Semi-detached

Ten semis sold in July at a median of $827,250, down 10.8% from July 2025, with 80% closing below list. Year-to-date the semi median is off 11.6%. This entry-level segment has not found its floor the way detached has.

Attached / row townhouse

Seven townhouse sales at a median of $822,000, down 7.6% year over year, with every July sale closing below asking at an average 96.6% of list. Volume was less than half of last July's 13 sales. Small monthly samples here — treat the direction (soft) as more reliable than any single percentage.

Condo apartment

Six condo sales at a median of $466,000, down 12.2% year over year, averaging 61 days on market. Six transactions is too small a sample for a precise price call, but the pattern is consistent month after month: condos remain Newmarket's weakest segment, with the deepest discounts and the slowest absorption.

The plain-English takeaway: Newmarket's slightly positive blended median does not mean every home type appreciated. Detached is stabilizing first — consistent with the sequence we have tracked all year: price correction, then transaction recovery, then inventory tightening, then seller pricing power, and only then sustained appreciation. Entry-level segments are still earlier in that sequence.

What 2026 has looked like so far: January to July

The shape of 2026 is clear: sales nearly doubled from January's 44 to May's 104, then eased into the normal summer pattern, while active listings have declined for three straight months from the April peak. Sales improving from winter while inventory rolls over from spring is exactly the configuration you want to see mid-recovery. What the chart does not show is a price boom — the median has oscillated between roughly $861,000 and $963,000 all year. Volume is recovering ahead of price, as it typically does.

What usually happens in August, September and October in Newmarket?

The "fall market explodes right after Labour Day" cliché deserves scrutiny. Using median month-over-month changes from 2011–2025 (medians, so outlier years like 2020 don't distort the picture), Newmarket's actual post-summer pattern looks like this:

In other words: August typically drops another 14% from July. September sales have historically run about 8% below July, not above it — re-engagement, not a surge. The more reliable improvement shows up in October, which has historically run about 5% above August. If August 2026 is slow, that will not be evidence the recovery failed. If October is slow, that would be worth worrying about.

Economic forces shaping the fall market

Jobs: the labour market turned up

Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey (released August 7, 2026) showed Canada adding 75,000 jobs in July, with the national unemployment rate falling to 6.4% — its lowest in two years and the third consecutive monthly decline. Ontario led all provinces with roughly 52,000 new jobs, and Toronto CMA unemployment sat at 6.7%, down sharply from its 9.0% peak in July 2025. Since April, Canada has added about 181,000 jobs. For a commuter market like Newmarket, employment confidence is the raw material of housing demand.

Inflation and the Bank of Canada

June CPI (released July 20) came in at 2.8% year over year, down from 3.2% in May, with the Bank of Canada's core measures averaging about 1.9%. July CPI had not yet been released when this report was published (it arrives August 17). The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15 — its sixth consecutive hold since October 2025 — and projects inflation returning to around 2% in early 2027. The next rate decision is September 2, 2026.

Mortgage rates and what markets expect next

As of August 12, 2026, the average 5-year fixed rate across major lenders was about 4.59% and the average 5-year variable about 3.95%, with the lowest widely available rates near 3.99% fixed and 3.40% variable. The forward rate market — market-implied pricing, not a Bank of Canada forecast — has moved away from expecting near-term cuts and now assigns roughly a two-thirds probability to a quarter-point hike by December, with pricing implying a policy rate near 3% by mid-2027. Forward pricing changes constantly and is frequently wrong, but the direction of the shift matters.

Here is the push-pull that defines fall 2026: a strengthening job market improves buyer confidence — and simultaneously removes the Bank of Canada's reason to cut rates. Newmarket buyers may enter the fall with stronger employment, stabilized prices, and no meaningful improvement in borrowing costs. Waiting for cheaper money is no longer a strategy the data supports. Run your own numbers with the affordability calculator at today's actual rates.

What this means for Newmarket sellers

Selling conditions are better than the sales count suggests — if you price to the market. Correctly priced homes are moving in under three weeks at the median, and your competition is thinning: active listings are down 11% year over year and new listings down 16%. But 622 terminations against 519 sales in 2026 is the market's verdict on overpricing. If you own a detached home, you have the firmest segment in town. If you're selling a townhouse, semi or condo, pricing sharp against the last 60 days of comparables matters far more than any municipal average — your segment is still finding its floor.

Timing-wise, the historical record argues against rushing to list into August's typical lull and against assuming September brings a surge. October has been the more reliable fall month. The right strategy depends on your property type and your competition on the day you list — see the sellers page for how I approach it.

What this means for Newmarket buyers

Buyers still hold leverage in Newmarket — a 41% SNLR and 4.25 months of inventory is not a seller's market — but the leverage is uneven and it is not growing. In the detached segment, absorption is improving and days on market are shrinking; the deepest negotiating room is in condos, townhouses and semis, where most sales close below asking and inventory sits longer. The window where you can negotiate with little competition is the kind that closes gradually, then quickly: if demand keeps returning while listings keep falling, the leverage you have today shrinks.

You can browse current inventory on the MLS® search, and the buyers page covers my process.

Fall 2026 outlook for Newmarket

My base case, stated as probabilities rather than promises: August likely stays slow — the historical median drop is another 14% from July — and a quiet August should not be read as renewed deterioration. September brings re-engagement from buyers and sellers, but history does not support expecting an immediate explosive rebound. October has been the more reliable month for a genuine fall improvement in transaction activity.

The most important variable is inventory. If buyer demand returns faster than new listings this fall, MOI falls, buyer leverage shrinks, seller pricing power improves, and price stabilization hardens into something that could eventually support appreciation. If sellers flood the fall market instead, stronger sales will simply absorb the new supply and price growth stays muted. Watch the SNLR and new-listing counts in September and October — they will tell you which scenario is unfolding before prices do.

I am more confident in a fall improvement in transaction activity than I am in broad-based price appreciation. That is what the data supports today; if the data changes, so will the call. For the full-year context and prior months, see the Newmarket real estate market 2026 report, and for how the neighbouring market compares, the Aurora market report — Aurora is further along in the recovery than Newmarket, which is itself instructive.

Newmarket real estate FAQ — July 2026

Is Newmarket a buyer's or seller's market in July 2026?

By the numbers, Newmarket sits at the buyer's-market/balanced boundary: a 41% sales-to-new-listings ratio and 4.25 months of inventory. Buyers hold modest leverage overall, but the detached segment is behaving closer to balanced, while condos and townhouses remain firmly buyer-favourable.

Are Newmarket home prices going up or down?

Mostly sideways. The July 2026 median of $929,369 is 0.4% above July 2025, but that blended figure is propped up by a heavier detached sales mix. Detached prices are roughly flat year over year; semis, townhouses and condos are still down 8–12%. Prices have stabilized; broad appreciation has not yet been established.

Why did Newmarket home sales fall in July 2026?

Seasonality. The 12.9% June-to-July decline almost exactly matches the −13% median summer pullback Newmarket has recorded since 2011. Sales remain up 4.6% year to date versus 2025.

Is this a good time to buy a home in Newmarket?

For buyers with secure employment and financing at today's rates, conditions are unusually favourable on selection and negotiation — especially for condos, towns and semis. The trade-off: mortgage rates are unlikely to fall meaningfully soon (markets are pricing possible hikes, not cuts), so waiting for cheaper money is a bet the data doesn't currently support.

What could happen to the Newmarket market in fall 2026?

History suggests a slow August, a modest September re-engagement, and a more meaningful October. The deciding variable is whether returning buyer demand outpaces new listings. A stronger fall for transaction volume is more probable than a broad jump in prices.

About the author

Matthew Gizzie is a REALTOR® with Keller Williams Realty Centres, Brokerage, serving Newmarket, Aurora and York Region. His data-driven monthly market analysis — The Economics of Real Estate — has been featured by Newmarket Today and Aurora Today. Reach him through the contact page or learn more at meet Matthew.

Sources: TRREB MLS® historical statistics for Newmarket (2011–2026), captured August 2026; Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, July 2026 (released August 7, 2026); Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index, June 2026 (released July 20, 2026); Bank of Canada policy rate announcement, July 15, 2026; posted lender mortgage rates and CORRA forward-market pricing as of August 12, 2026.

Data disclaimer: Market data is based on TRREB/board MLS® information available at the time of publication. Monthly figures can change slightly as transactions are finalized or subsequently reported. Individual neighbourhoods and property types can perform differently from municipal averages. This article is market analysis, not financial advice; forward-looking statements are conditional interpretations of historical data, not guarantees.

Matthew Gizzie is a registered REALTOR® with Keller Williams Realty Centres, Brokerage. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract. MLS® and REALTOR® are trademarks of The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).