Simcoe County, Ontario Real Estate Market — October 2026
October 2026 was a buyer's market across Simcoe County: sales at 32% of new listings, inventory sits at 7.0 months, and 87% of sales over the past year closed below list price.
Prices still falling, and faster than a year ago.
The 12-month average price is $756,435, 19.3% below its July 2022 peak and 6.8% lower than a year ago, against a 2.4% decline twelve months earlier. 7,047 homes sold across the county over the last 12 months.
Market phase: correction, buyers in control. Sellers are listing less, but buyers are buying less too, and the three-month average price is 5.8% lower than a year ago.
Simcoe County Housing Market — October 2026 At a Glance
October 2026 was a buyer's market across Simcoe County, Ontario. Sales came in at 592, 14.8% fewer than a year earlier, and the median price was $683,000, down 4.5%. New listings are 12.7% lower than last October and active listings 8.5% lower, but sales fell faster, so inventory rose to 7.01 months from 6.57. For a single town, see the Barrie or Bradford West Gwillimbury reports; to the south, the York Region housing market report. Every figure below is compared with the same month a year earlier, which removes the seasonal swing.
October 2026 — Full Breakdown
Prices, inventory, what's moving and what's sitting — explained in plain language. Subscribe to get every monthly market video the moment it drops.
Subscribe at youtube.com/@matthewgizzie — monthly market breakdowns for York Region buyers and sellers.
Is Simcoe County a Buyer's or Seller's Market? — October 2026
The cleanest single read on who holds the leverage is the sales-to-new-listings ratio: sales divided by new listings over the same period. Under 40% is a buyer's market and over 60% is a seller's market. We show it three ways, because one month can swing: the latest month, the last three months and the last twelve.
Balance Meter
The needle shows the latest month, which can swing. The three- and 12-month reads are steadier.
Seven signals, Aug to Oct 2026 against the same months a year earlier.
Hotter means tighter for buyers; cooler means more room. A signal moves only when it changes by a set amount: 5% for sales and listings, 2% for price, 3 points for the ratios, 0.3 months for inventory.
Sales equalled 32% of new listings over the last 12 months. The median since 2010 is 53%.
6.57 months on the three-month measure, against 6.57 a year earlier. How long the current stock of listings would last at the current pace of sales.
Every Month Since 2010 — Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio
Charcoal favours buyers, gold favours sellers, and the pale middle is balanced. Read across a row to see the season; read down a column to compare the same month over 17 years.
Best positioned right now: Buyers with financing in place, especially for condo apartments, where sales were 26% of new listings, 91% of sales closed below list and inventory is 11.42 months, and buyers in Ramara, where sales were 22% of new listings. Move-up buyers too: they sell and buy in the same falling market, and the step from a row townhouse to a detached home is $199,142, down from $227,845 at its widest.
Most pressure: Sellers priced to last year's market. Over the last 12 months, 46 listings were pulled for every 100 that came to market, against a long-run norm of 10.
Not sure what 7.0 months of inventory means for your situation?
Get a Custom Breakdown →Simcoe County Home Price Trends — 2010 to October 2026
One month's average price moves with the mix of homes that happened to sell. To see the real trend we use the 12-month average: total dollar volume divided by total sales over the trailing year. On that measure Simcoe County peaked at $937,375 in July 2022 and now stands at $756,435, 19.3% lower. The earlier correction bottomed 4.0% below its peak in May 2018.
12-month average $756,435, −6.8% on the year.
12-month average price against its highest level to that point. Zero means a new high. Today: −19.3%.
| Month | Median Price | Average Price | Sales | Median vs a Year Earlier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 ✦ | $683,000 | $734,961 | 592 | −4.5% |
| Sep 2026 | $685,000 | $764,480 | 617 | −3.5% |
| Aug 2026 | $680,000 | $746,898 | 654 | −6.2% |
| Jul 2026 | $690,000 | $745,027 | 719 | −5.8% |
| Jun 2026 | $712,500 | $767,312 | 791 | −4.4% |
| May 2026 | $720,000 | $799,406 | 789 | −4.0% |
| Apr 2026 | $711,400 | $757,052 | 670 | −5.1% |
| Mar 2026 | $684,000 | $729,653 | 509 | −9.1% |
| Feb 2026 | $667,500 | $733,481 | 422 | −11.0% |
| Jan 2026 | $690,000 | $745,874 | 356 | −8.0% |
| Dec 2025 | $690,000 | $750,276 | 399 | −10.4% |
| Nov 2025 | $700,000 | $773,077 | 529 | −6.7% |
| Oct 2025 | $715,500 | $800,145 | 695 | −5.5% |
How Much Are Simcoe County Buyers Negotiating?
Whether homes sell above or below their list price is the most direct measure of who is negotiating from strength. At the height of the last cycle, in February 2022, 66% of Simcoe County homes sold above list over the year. Today 87% sell below it.
Each month's share weighted by that month's sales and averaged over 12 months. Above and below are measured against the original list price.
Simcoe County Home Prices by Property Type — Detached, Condo & Townhouse
Detached homes are 75% of Simcoe County's resale activity. Every property type is below its price peak, by 16.2% to 21.6%, and every type is lower than a year ago, so the correction is county-wide. Only semi-detached homes sit in balanced territory; the rest favour buyers. Figures cover the last 12 months. Investors can cross-check the investment deal analyzer.
Total dollar volume divided by sales over the trailing 12 months, for each property type.
The Last 12 Months by Property Type
| Property Type | Sales | Share | Average Price | vs Year Ago | From Peak | Sales-to-Listings | Below List | Active | Months Inv. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All homes | 7,047 | 100% | $756,435 | −6.8% | −19.3% | 32% | 87% | 4,047 | 6.57 |
| Detached | 5,275 | 75% | $815,848 | −7.3% | −19.3% | 32% | 87% | 3,054 | 6.51 |
| Semi-detached | 208 | 3% | $652,746 | −4.0% | −16.2% | 44% | 81% | 77 | 4.20 |
| Row townhouse | 682 | 10% | $616,706 | −8.8% | −21.6% | 38% | 84% | 278 | 5.18 |
| Condo townhouse | 295 | 4% | $535,768 | −9.1% | −17.6% | 31% | 89% | 212 | 7.48 |
| Condo apartment | 444 | 6% | $485,766 | −7.4% | −19.2% | 26% | 91% | 373 | 11.42 |
All homes also counts link homes and other types not listed, so shares do not add to 100%. Months of inventory is the three-month measure.
Current Active Inventory Snapshot
Is Now a Good Time to Upgrade in Simcoe County?
A move-up buyer sells and buys in the same market, so what matters is the gap between the two homes. We track that gap every month back to 2010. Today a detached home costs 32.3% more than a row townhouse across the county, against a long-run median of 31.7%, so the step up is priced about normally. What has changed is the dollar amount: $199,142, down from $227,845 at its widest in June 2022. Review the buyer's guide before making your move.
| Upgrade Path | Selling (12-Mo Avg) | Buying (12-Mo Avg) | Step Up | Premium | Typical Since 2010 | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Row townhouse → Detached | $616,706 | $815,848 | $199,142 | +32.3% | +31.7% | In line with normal |
| Semi-detached → Detached | $652,746 | $815,848 | $163,102 | +25.0% | +28.9% | Narrower than usual |
| Condo townhouse → Detached | $535,768 | $815,848 | $280,080 | +52.3% | +53.2% | In line with normal |
| Condo apartment → Row townhouse | $485,766 | $616,706 | $130,941 | +27.0% | +21.5% | Wider than usual |
| Condo apartment → Semi-detached | $485,766 | $652,746 | $166,980 | +34.4% | +25.4% | Wider than usual |
| Condo townhouse → Row townhouse | $535,768 | $616,706 | $80,938 | +15.1% | +17.3% | In line with normal |
A free home valuation gives you your current equity position, the essential first step before any move-up decision. Also review the seller's guide to understand your net proceeds. Get a Free Valuation →
The premium has ranged from +24.9% in May 2023 to +41.9% in March 2011. It was lower than today in 55% of earlier months.
Thinking about upgrading? Find out what your current home is worth first.
Free Home Valuation →Simcoe County Municipalities — Where to Buy in 2026
Simcoe County is eighteen markets, not one. Average prices run from $576,469 in Midland to $1,048,262 in Adjala-Tosorontio, and Barrie, Innisfil and New Tecumseth make up 42% of sales, so they set the county headline. The 12-month average price is lower than a year ago in every one. Figures cover the 12 months to October 2026. Town reports: Barrie and Bradford West Gwillimbury.
Supply Pressure by Municipality — 12 Months to October 2026
| Municipality | Sales | Average Price | vs Year Ago | Sales-to-Listings | Below List | Active | Months Inv. | Condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrie | 1,804 | $664,901 | −8.0% | 33% | 87% | 880 | 5.97 | Buyer-leaning |
| Innisfil | 612 | $796,072 | −12.6% | 27% | 85% | 399 | 8.31 | Buyer-leaning |
| New Tecumseth | 561 | $798,229 | −7.8% | 40% | 87% | 244 | 4.60 | Buyer-leaning |
| Wasaga Beach | 513 | $681,124 | −0.6% | 31% | 88% | 325 | 7.39 | Buyer-leaning |
| Orillia | 475 | $608,693 | −5.0% | 40% | 85% | 202 | 4.15 | Buyer-leaning |
| Bradford West Gwillimbury | 461 | $930,738 | −9.8% | 40% | 85% | 182 | 4.75 | Balanced |
| Collingwood | 460 | $796,638 | −0.9% | 34% | 92% | 306 | 8.27 | Buyer-leaning |
| Essa | 273 | $795,553 | −4.4% | 37% | 87% | 119 | 5.41 | Buyer-leaning |
| Oro-Medonte | 263 | $990,000 | −0.7% | 27% | 86% | 180 | 7.94 | Buyer-leaning |
| Springwater | 259 | $984,992 | −7.0% | 28% | 85% | 169 | 6.42 | Buyer-leaning |
| Midland | 233 | $576,469 | −3.6% | 38% | 90% | 115 | 5.23 | Buyer-leaning |
| Tiny | 218 | $830,800 | −12.6% | 28% | 89% | 176 | 7.88 | Buyer-leaning |
| Severn | 201 | $843,008 | −6.7% | 29% | 85% | 152 | 7.13 | Buyer-leaning |
| Clearview | 186 | $829,278 | −15.2% | 30% | 90% | 164 | 8.79 | Buyer-leaning |
| Tay | 166 | $623,816 | −7.4% | 31% | 86% | 93 | 6.64 | Buyer-leaning |
| Ramara | 133 | $715,490 | −5.7% | 22% | 86% | 167 | 13.18 | Buyer-leaning |
| Adjala-Tosorontio | 117 | $1,048,262 | −15.1% | 28% | 95% | 102 | 12.75 | Buyer-leaning |
| Penetanguishene | 109 | $623,444 | −3.1% | 32% | 93% | 70 | 7.24 | Buyer-leaning |
Sales-to-listings = sales ÷ new listings over the same 12 months, two separate totals; it is not the share of those particular listings that went on to sell. Above 60% = seller-leaning; 40–60% = balanced; below 40% = buyer-leaning. Average prices cover all property types, so a change in the mix of homes sold can move a neighbourhood's average as much as the market does.
Buying or Selling in Simcoe County? October 2026 Strategy Guide
Buyers hold the leverage. Price to the sold data, not the asking prices.
88.9% of October sales closed below list, at a median of $683,000. 87% of sales over the last year closed below list, and homes that sold in October took a median of 29 days.
Price is the strategy. Timing is not. Talk to Matthew directly →
Simcoe County Investment & Rental Market Outlook — 2026
The average lease signed through the MLS in Simcoe County over the last 12 months was $2,759 a month, down 1.4% on the year, while the number of leases rose 8.6%. The headline moves with the mix of unit sizes, so read it by bedroom count: 1-bedroom −1.5%, 2-bedroom +0.2%, 3-bedroom +2.6%, 4-bedroom +3.0%. 1-bedroom rents are lower, 2-bedroom flat and 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom higher. For town rents see the Barrie rental market report.
Total lease value divided by leases signed over the trailing 12 months, for each bedroom count.
| Bedrooms | Leases, 12 Months | Average Rent | vs Year Ago | From Peak | Leases-to-Listings | Active | Median Days to Lease |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 bedroom | 620 | $1,940 | −1.5% | −22.6% | 64% | 109 | 30 |
| 2 bedroom | 1,027 | $2,564 | +0.2% | −33.3% | 62% | 212 | 29 |
| 3 bedroom | 1,445 | $3,058 | +2.6% | −22.2% | 62% | 319 | 22 |
| 4 bedroom | 715 | $3,445 | +3.0% | −10.6% | 60% | 148 | 23 |
For Investors
For Renters
For Landlords
Rents are averages of leases signed through the MLS® over the last 12 months. The gross yield compares average rent with average sale price for row townhouses; they are not the same homes, so treat it as a rough guide.
Buying in Simcoe County right now
Buyers hold the leverage across Simcoe County: sales at 32% of new listings in October and inventory sits at 7.0 months, so you have time to compare homes and keep your conditions. 88.9% of October sales closed below list and the median home sold after 29 days, so offer from recent sold prices, not the asking price. Conditions differ by municipality: Bradford West Gwillimbury is the tightest, Ramara the loosest.
Want to Know What This Market Means for You?
Every situation is different. I break down your exact position — whether you're buying, selling, or investing — using the current Simcoe County data.
Simcoe County Real Estate FAQ — Prices, Market & Municipalities
Prices & Market Conditions
Municipalities
Buying & Selling
Simcoe County Real Estate Forecast — What to Watch in November & December 2026
Our test for a structural recovery across Simcoe County: 700 or more sales a month with inventory at 5.0 months or less. Here is how each of the last 12 months scored. None passed; the closest was June 2026, with 791 sales and 6.00 months of inventory. October came in at 592 sales with 7.01 months of inventory, on the caution side of both lines.
Gold: recovery test met. Charcoal: caution (sales under 600, or inventory over 6 months). Pale: in between.
Inventory back to 5.0 months or less with sales at 700 or more. Last year sales were 529 in November and 399 in December; matching those with fewer listings would tighten the market. Watch the share of sales closing below list: 89% over the last three months, against 87% a year earlier.
Sales below 600 a month or inventory above 6.0 months. October is already past both lines. The 12-month average price is falling 6.8% a year, faster than a year ago; until that rate eases, the correction is still running.
This is what separates informed decisions from guesswork. Bookmark the Simcoe County real estate market 2026 report — updated monthly, with every month back to 2010.
Get Simcoe County Market Updates Every Month
Prices, inventory, and what it means for buyers and sellers — delivered before it's publicly posted.
Related Reports & Resources
Coverage
Resale transactions and leases recorded through the MLS® for Simcoe County, Ontario. Source: HabiStat MLS® statistics, all associations, monthly from January 2010 to October 2026. Excludes new construction sold by builders, assignment sales and private sales. The current partial month is reported separately and left out of every calculation.
Key Definitions
Sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR): sales in the period divided by new listings in the same period, two separate totals. It measures pressure, not the fate of any one listing: a 30% reading does not mean 30% of that month's listings sold, and it is not a probability that a given home will sell. Months of inventory: how long active listings would last at the current pace of sales; the three-month measure uses the trailing three months of sales. 12-month average price: total dollar volume divided by total sales over the trailing 12 months. Sale-to-list: sale price as a percentage of list price. Distance from peak: the 12-month average price against its highest level to that point.
How the Reads Are Made
Market phase compares the latest three months with the same three months a year earlier and tags each signal hotter, cooler or steady by a fixed threshold. The balance meter treats a sales-to-new-listings ratio under 40% as a buyer's market and over 60% as a seller's market. These are rules applied to the data, not forecasts.
Limitations
Figures by property type or neighbourhood rest on smaller samples and can move with the mix of homes sold, which is why they are shown over 12 months. Average rents cover leases through the MLS® only. All data is subject to revision.
Mis-keyed lease records: in November 2010, May 2011, September 2011, October 2011, November 2011, December 2011, January 2012, August 2012, September 2012, October 2012, November 2012, December 2012, August 2013, September 2013, October 2013, November 2013, December 2013, January 2014, August 2014, September 2014, December 2014, August 2015, September 2015, November 2015, June 2016, September 2016, October 2016, November 2016, December 2016, July 2017, October 2017, December 2017, August 2018, June 2019, July 2019, August 2020, October 2020, November 2020, February 2021, March 2021, July 2021, October 2021, February 2023, October 2023, November 2023, September 2026 and October 2026, the MLS® data holds lease values far above any rent, most likely sale prices or extra zeros (a property type or bedroom count whose average was more than 2.2 times its median). Those records are counted at that month's median rent, and the excess is taken out of the all-homes figure. Lease counts are unchanged. Left in, they would set a false rent peak.
Editorial Notes
Neighbourhood descriptions and commute times are editorial and are not appraisals. Commute times reflect typical off-peak conditions.
All metrics are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association. Matthew Gizzie is a registered REALTOR® with Keller Williams Realty Centres, Brokerage.
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