Investor services · York Region · Simcoe County · Uxbridge
Bring me a listing. Let's see whether the numbers work for you.
I'm Matthew Gizzie, a REALTOR® with Keller Williams Realty Centres and an active real estate investor. Before you make an offer, I'll show you the assumptions, the evidence behind them and the downside, including the cases where the honest answer is to walk away.
No obligation for the first conversation · 5.0 on Google from 24 reviews
1 · The numbers
2 · Rent against monthly costs
Rent is an illustrative assumption from the average completed Aurora row townhouse lease, not a verified whole-townhouse rent. Data: October 2025 to September 2026.
3 · The read
Pass for cash flow. Could work for long-term equity, or with a legal second unit.
How a listing review works
Four steps, one straight answer
A deal can turn on the lease, the tax bill or unit legality. The review is built to find those before you commit.
Send the listing
Email the link or address, your target area and the best way to reach you.
I pull the evidence
Sold and leased comparables, the lease in place, and the costs that come with the property.
Base case and downside
Every line written out, with the assumptions marked, so you can change them.
A straight answer
Whether the numbers work for your plan, including when the answer is to walk away.
Listing review request
Send me a listing to review
Paste the listing link or address and tell me how you'd like to hear back. I'll send back the same lines you see in the scenario below, for that property.
- No obligation for this first review conversation
- Prefer to talk? Call (289) 338-1433 or text
No obligation, and you won’t be added to a mailing list.
Illustrative market scenario · not an actual property or client result
What an analysis looks like before you make an offer
This scenario uses Aurora's trailing 12-month figures for a freehold row townhouse, self-managed, with the tenant paying all utilities. Aurora is the town where both sales and rental data are loaded today.
Read before using: the rent is an illustrative assumption set at the average completed Aurora row townhouse lease, not a verified whole-townhouse rent. Data period: October 2025 to September 2026. Assumptions last reviewed: October 16, 2026.
This market data is more than 45 days past its period end. Newer figures may be available in the Aurora market report.
Try the scenario
Move the inputs. Watch the cash requirement.
Price is fixed at the Aurora 12-month average of $924,110. You can adjust rent, rate and down payment. Tax, insurance, vacancy, maintenance and reserves stay fixed at the figures in the full table.
Showing the base case. The adjustable version needs JavaScript.
Base case: 4% vacancy, self-managed. Downside: rent 10% lower, 8% vacancy, 8% management, rate 1 point higher.
Additional cash this scenario requires
Before income-tax effects and unmodelled costs.
Rent modelled: $3,198 a month
Where the rent goes each month
Operating costs and reservesMortgage covered by rentShortfall you fund
Break-even thresholds. Mathematical thresholds under fixed assumptions, not achievable market rents or an opinion of value. At base settings, cash flow reaches zero at a rent of about $5,659 a month, or a price of about $454,400 with tax and every other cost held fixed. Even at a 0% rate, principal repayment exceeds the operating income.
My read. This scenario is not a cash-flow purchase. It requires about $2,239 a month from you. It can still make sense for long-term equity if you can fund that comfortably, or where a legal second unit changes the income. If neither applies, I'd tell you to pass.
See every line of the base case
| Line and basis | Figure |
|---|---|
| Purchase price12-month average sale price, Aurora row townhouses, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026, 105 sales | $924,110 |
| Down paymentAssumption: 20% down. Financing is subject to lender approval | $184,822 |
| Land transfer taxOntario rate schedule, no first-time buyer rebate | $14,957 |
| Legal, title and inspectionAssumption | $3,000 |
| Estimated cash to closeClosing adjustments, initial repairs and an emergency reserve are additional | $202,779 |
| RentIllustrative rent assumption, set at the 12-month average of completed Aurora row townhouse leases (106 leases). Not a verified whole-townhouse rent | $3,198 / month |
| Vacancy allowance (4%)Assumption | −$1,535 / yr |
| Property taxAssumed figure. Aurora taxes follow assessed value, not price. A real review uses the property's tax bill | −$6,931 / yr |
| InsuranceAssumption | −$2,000 / yr |
| Operating maintenance (3% of scheduled rent)Assumption | −$1,151 / yr |
| Property managementSelf-managed. Tenant pays all utilities | $0 |
| Operating income before capital reserveYield on price before reserve: 2.9% | $26,764 / yr |
| Capital reserve (2% of scheduled rent)Assumption. Set aside for roof, furnace, windows | −$768 / yr |
| Net operating income after reserveCap rate after reserve: 2.8%. Both are before financing | $25,997 / yr |
| Mortgage paymentAssumption: 5.25%, 25-year amortization, compounded semi-annually. Same defaults as the Deal Analyzer | −$4,406 / month |
| Additional cash this scenario requires$26,870 a year, including the capital reserve, before income-tax effects and unmodelled costs | $2,239 / month |
| For information: principal repaid in year 1Reduces the loan balance. It does not reduce the cash needed each month | $14,821 |
Market figures: HabiStat MLS® statistics, October 2025 to September 2026. Assumptions (rate, tax, insurance, reserves) are set by hand and were last reviewed October 16, 2026. Run your own numbers in the Investment Deal Analyzer.
Reasons I'd recommend passing on a deal
- The rent that makes it work is a market rent the current lease can't reach.
- The income depends on a unit that isn't legal or permitted.
- The plan only works if a refinance appraises at a value nobody can promise.
- You couldn't comfortably carry the downside case for 12 months.
Aurora data · 12 months to September 2026
Aurora sale prices and rents by property type
Sales and rents are shown separately. They aren't combined into a yield, because rental figures can include leases of part of a property, such as a basement, and the data can't separate those from whole-property leases.
Average sale price
Change vs the 12 months to Sep 2025 · sales
Average monthly rent
Change vs the 12 months to Sep 2025 · leases
Average price is total dollar volume divided by transactions over 12 months. Rents are completed leases through the MLS®, not asking rents, and may include partial-property leases in any type. ‡ Fewer than 50 transactions: read as direction only. Types with fewer than 20 are not shown. These are editorial screening rules, not statistical tests. Condo figures exclude condo fees. Source: HabiStat MLS® statistics, all associations. Full detail: Aurora market report · Aurora rental report.
The calls that decide a deal
Five questions that decide whether it works
The spreadsheet is the easy part. These are the judgment calls that move the answer.
Current rent is not market rent
For many existing tenancies, Ontario limits annual increases to the provincial guideline, and some newer units are exempt. I underwrite the lease you inherit and show market rent separately. Selling with tenants? See Selling a Tenanted Property.
Cap rate is not cash flow
Cap rate measures the property before financing. Cash flow depends on your down payment, rate and amortization, so the same property can work for one buyer and not another.
A refinance is not guaranteed
Getting capital back on a BRRRR plan depends on a future appraisal and a lender's approval. I model the case where the appraisal comes in lower.
A duplex and a 10-unit building are different purchases
Financing, appraisal and analysis change with the number of units. I'll tell you which one a property is before you write an offer.
Who you're working with
An agent who invests, and knows where his job ends
Matthew Gizzie, REALTOR® · Keller Williams Realty Centres, Brokerage, Newmarket · 5.0 on Google from 24 reviews
What I do
- Find properties on and off the MLS®
- Pull rent and sales comparables
- Build the analysis shown on this page
- Plan and negotiate the offer
Where others lead
- Mortgage brokers and lenders: financing
- Real estate lawyers: title, contracts and leases
- Accountants: tax and ownership structure
- Insurance brokers: landlord coverage
- Property managers: if you don't self-manage
I can introduce you to professionals I work with. Their advice is their own.
Where I work
Market and rental reports for the areas I serve
Each report is built from the same HabiStat data used on this page.
York Region
Simcoe County and Uxbridge
Rental market reports
Tools
FAQ
Questions investors ask
I'm new to investing. Can you still help?
Yes. We start with your budget, your timeline and how much monthly shortfall you could carry. That decides which properties are worth looking at.
How is your analysis different?
You see every line: cash to close, the lease in place, market rent, expenses, reserves, financing and a downside case. Every assumption is written down, so you can change it.
Which areas do you recommend right now?
It depends on whether you're buying for cash flow, long-term equity or a value-add plan. I won't rank towns on a single number. Each town's market report and rental report are linked on this page.
Can you help with BRRRR or value-add?
Yes. I model the refinance at more than one appraisal value. Before any conversion income is counted, I coordinate verification of the unit with the municipality and the appropriate professionals.
What returns should I expect?
I won't promise a return. I'll show you the base case, the downside and what would have to be true for the deal to work.
Is it a good time to invest?
It depends on the property and your financing. The illustrative scenario on this page requires about $2,239 a month in additional cash under its assumptions. Opportunities are in specific properties, not in averages.
Can buyers from outside Canada purchase here?
Federal rules currently restrict many non-Canadians from buying residential property in Canada, with exceptions. Eligibility should be confirmed with a lawyer before you start looking.
Next step
Bring me a listing. Let's see whether the numbers work for you.
Email the listing link or address, your target area and the best way to reach you. Still planning? A 15-minute call on your goals, budget and which markets to watch.
Matthew@meetmatthew.ca · No obligation for the first conversation
This page is general information, not financial, investment, legal or tax advice. The worked example is an illustrative scenario built from market averages and stated assumptions; it is not a property, an appraisal or a forecast, and actual results will differ. Photos are for illustration and do not show the scenario property. Real estate investments carry risk, including loss of capital. Matthew Gizzie is a REALTOR® with Keller Williams Realty Centres, Brokerage, and is not a licensed financial advisor, mortgage professional, lawyer or accountant. Consult qualified professionals before making investment decisions. MLS® and REALTOR® are trademarks of the Canadian Real Estate Association.
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