February 2026 Aurora Market Snapshot
Aurora’s resale market showed signs of stabilization in February 2026, with 41 transactions recorded and a median sale price of $1,200,000. Inventory remains elevated at 5.0 months with an SNLR of 32%, reflecting buyer-leaning conditions overall — though Aurora Highlands (100% SP/LP) and Bayview Northeast (median DOM 6 days) demonstrated genuine competition. Buyers across most segments have meaningful negotiating leverage.
Key Takeaways — February 2026
- â–¼Prices: Median $1,200,000 | Avg $1,264,426 | P25 $950K, P75 $1.53M
- →Leverage: Buyer-leaning — SNLR 32%, 5.0 months of inventory, SP/LP at 97%
- ~Speed: Avg DOM 34 days, median DOM 18 days — link homes sold in 4 days avg; detached at 40 days
- !Spring watch: March–May activity will confirm whether February's MoM improvement is a floor or a bounce
February Summary: Aurora's market is firmly buyer-leaning with 5.0 months of inventory and an SNLR of 32%. February recorded 41 sales (up from 44 in January), with detached median prices improving month-over-month. A potential floor may be forming ahead of spring. Well-priced properties are still moving, and motivated sellers are accepting conditions.
Data based on TRREB MLS® reported February 2026 resale activity. Metrics may be revised; some property types or segments may not sum due to classification differences.
Aurora Market Conditions — February 2026
Three core indicators define Aurora's current market balance: the Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR), months of inventory (MOI), and average days on market (DOM). All three are signalling buyer-leaning conditions as of February 2026.
SNLR < 40% (typically)
40%–60%
SNLR > 60%
What this means: With 5.0 months of inventory and an SNLR of 32%, buyers have the negotiating upper hand. Active listings sit at 253 with a median list price of $999,900 — meaning roughly half the market is listed under $1M. The 97% SP/LP ratio confirms sellers are accepting below-asking offers. A median DOM of 25 days means most buyers have time for home inspection and financing conditions — use them.
Aurora Median Home Price — 13-Month Trend
Aurora’s February 2026 median sale price is $1,200,000 per TRREB MLS®. Prior months are estimated based on York Region pricing trends and are shown for directional context only — they are not sourced from TRREB neighbourhood data. The estimated peak near $1,600,000 in early 2025 would represent a correction of approximately 25% to today’s median. Median is used throughout as it’s less distorted by high-end outliers, which are common in Aurora’s luxury segments.
Trend Note: Aurora’s February 2026 median of $1,200,000 represents a modest recovery from January’s estimated low of ~$1,185,000. The estimated YoY correction is approximately 25% from the early-2025 peak — consistent with the broader York Region pattern. If spring volume builds, a floor may be forming in the $1,150,000–$1,250,000 range. Note: only the February 2026 data point is sourced directly from TRREB MLS®; all prior months are estimated.
Aurora Home Prices by Property Type — February 2026
Detached homes account for the majority of Aurora's resale activity but have seen the steepest price declines. Condominiums offer the lowest entry point and are showing the most price stability, while townhomes remain the sweet spot for affordability and resale liquidity.
February 2026 — Property Type Breakdown
Month-over-month comparison data is not available for Aurora. The table below summarizes all property types for February 2026. Detached homes dominated at 61% of sales. Link homes and row townhouses were the competitive standouts despite the buyer-leaning overall market. Note: all non-detached segments have low volumes (n=1–6) — treat percentages as directional.
| Property Type | Sales | Avg Price | Median Price | Avg DOM | Med DOM | SP/LP | SNLR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | 25 | $1,558,963 | $1,418,000 | 40 | 28 | 97% | 34% |
| Row Townhouse | 5 | $955,200 | $925,000 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 23% |
| Condo Apartment | 6 | $627,833 | $515,000 | 40 | 23 | 98% | 40% |
| Condo Townhouse | 2 | $724,500 | $724,500 | 36 | 36 | 99% | 17% |
| Link Home | 2 | $938,000 | $938,000 | 4 | 4 | 101% | 100% |
| Semi-Detached | 1 | $999,375 | $999,375 | 5 | 5 | 98% | 50% |
Type Takeaway: Detached homes accounted for 61% of Aurora’s February volume (25 of 41 sales) with a median of $1,418,000. Link homes were the competitive standout: 101% SP/LP and a 4-day average DOM despite only 2 sales — every listing sold. Row townhouses hit 100% SP/LP with a 7-day median DOM. The condo apartment segment showed the widest avg-to-median gap ($627K avg vs. $515K median), suggesting a few higher-priced units skewed the average. All non-detached segments have n≤6 sales — all ratios are directional only.
Is Now a Good Time to Upgrade in Aurora?
The spread between row townhouses and detached homes in Aurora is approximately $493,000 median-to-median. Aurora’s detached market is softer than the 2022 peak, and with SNLR at 34% and 40-day average DOM, buyers negotiating detached in Aurora have real leverage. If you own a townhouse or condo, your upgrade path costs less in relative terms than it did at peak.
| Upgrade Path | Selling Price (Est.) | Buying Price (Est.) | Price Spread | Spread vs. 2022 Peak | Market Condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Row Townhouse → Detached | ~$925,000 (med) | ~$1,418,000 (med) | $493,000 | ▼ Detached SNLR 34%; room to negotiate | Buyer's |
| Condo Apt → Row Townhouse | ~$515,000 (med) | ~$925,000 (med) | $410,000 | ▼ Row town: 100% SP/LP, fast-moving | Buyer's |
| Condo Apt → Semi-Detached | ~$515,000 (med) | ~$999,000 (med) | $484,000 | ▼ Semi: 1 sale only (n=1) | Buyer's |
Ready to run the numbers? A free home valuation gives you your current equity position in about 20 minutes — the essential first step before making any move-up decision.
Get a Free Valuation8 Macro Factors Shaping Aurora’s Market in 2026
Local data tells you what happened. Macro context tells you why — and what’s likely next. These eight factors are the primary forces acting on buyer demand, pricing, and inventory in Aurora and York Region right now.
The Bank of Canada cut its overnight rate nine times from a 5.0% peak, landing at 2.25% — the lowest since mid-2022. Variable mortgage holders have seen meaningful payment relief. The BoC held at its Jan 29 meeting and is expected to hold through most of 2026. No further cuts are priced in; a hike in 2027 is possible. 5-year fixed rates remain in the 3.89–4.49% range. Positive for buyers qualified under the stress test.
Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer projects zero population growth for the second consecutive year in 2026, driven by steep cuts to non-permanent resident admissions (from ~674K in 2025 to ~385K this year). The GTA, where international migrants have historically concentrated, faces a direct demand pullback. RBC economists explicitly cite slowing immigration as a key driver of housing softness. This is the most significant structural demand headwind in the current market.
Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in January 2026 — the lowest in 16 months — but the headline number is misleading: the economy shed 25,000 jobs while the labour force shrank. Ontario’s unemployment rate is 7.3%, above the national average, with manufacturing losses driven by US tariff exposure. Full-time employment is improving (+45K) but part-time is falling (−70K). Mixed signal — headline looks better than the underlying data.
Headline CPI eased to 2.3% in January 2026 (down from 2.4% in December), slightly below expectations. Core CPI-trim fell to 2.4% — the lowest since April 2021. Gasoline prices down 16.7% YoY were the primary driver of deceleration. Shelter inflation continues to slow year-over-year. Soft inflation keeps the BoC from hiking and preserves the current accommodative rate environment — a clear positive for housing. Food inflation at 4.8% remains a consumer budget pressure.
Canada’s full-year 2025 GDP grew 1.7% — a 0.3% decline from 2024 and the slowest pace in five years outside COVID. Q4 2025 contracted 0.1%, driven by inventory drawdowns as manufacturers front-ran US tariff barriers. CMHC projects only 0.7% GDP growth in 2026 — one of the weakest non-recessionary years on record. The BoC’s own forecast is 1.1%. Weak growth suppresses consumer confidence and dampens willingness to make large discretionary purchases like homes.
The OSFI stress test requires buyers to qualify at their contract rate plus 2% (minimum 5.25%). At a current 5-year fixed of ~4.25%, buyers must qualify at 6.25%. A meaningful easing: as of November 2024, borrowers switching lenders at renewal no longer need to re-qualify under the stress test. OSFI notes delinquencies rising (from historic lows) with the condo and investor segments showing the most stress. Renewing borrowers are mostly in better shape under the stress test — but a subset face real payment shock.
The renegotiation of CUSMA and ongoing US tariff pressure on Canadian goods are the single biggest wildcard in the 2026 economic outlook. StatCan reports 37% of Canadian businesses experienced negative impacts from US tariffs in Q3 2025 — visible in manufacturing, wholesale, and logistics. York Region’s employer base (tech, auto-adjacent manufacturing, logistics) has direct exposure. Every major bank and the BoC cite CUSMA resolution as the key gating factor for both rate decisions and economic recovery. Until resolved, this suppresses buyer confidence.
Housing starts are facing significant headwinds: high construction costs, weaker demand, rising condo inventories, and trade uncertainty are suppressing new project launches. CMHC notes the condo segment is in a severe downturn, with developers unable to achieve presales on new towers. The silver lining: reduced construction pipeline means future supply will tighten, which could support prices in the medium term. Short-term: more supply from cancellations and assignments. Medium-term (2027+): supply tightens, supporting price recovery.
Aurora Neighbourhoods — Where to Buy in 2026
Each Aurora neighbourhood has distinct price points, property mixes, and market pace. The data below reflects resale activity for February 2026. Most neighbourhoods have low monthly volume — interpret all percentages with appropriate caution. Use the anchored URLs for QR code campaigns.
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Get Sold Alerts →| Community | New Listings (Feb) | Sales (Feb) | SNLR | Condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora Highlands | 28 new listings | 12 | SNLR 43% | Balanced |
| Bayview Northeast | 11 new listings | 6 | SNLR 55% | Balanced |
| Aurora Village | 27 new listings | 8 | SNLR 30% | Buyer-Leaning |
| Aurora Heights | 8 new listings | 3 | SNLR 38% | Balanced |
| Bayview Southeast | 4 new listings | 2 | SNLR 50% | Balanced |
| Hills of St Andrew | 2 new listings | 1 | SNLR 50% | Balanced |
| Aurora Estates | 9 new listings | 2 | SNLR 22% | Buyer-Leaning |
| Rural Aurora | 24 new listings | 3 | SNLR 13% | Buyer-Leaning |
| Bayview Wellington | 12 new listings | 1 | SNLR 8% | Buyer-Leaning |
| Aurora Grove | 3 new listings | 3 | SNLR 100% | âš Low Supply |
SNLR = sales ÷ new listings. Above 60% = seller-leaning; 40–60% = balanced; below 40% = buyer-leaning. Aurora Grove had equal listings and sales (3:3) — treat as directional. Most neighbourhoods had low volume (1–3 sales). Data window: Feb 1–28, 2026. Source: TRREB MLS®.
| Metric | Feb 2026 | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Avg price | $1,334,250 | n=12 sales |
| Median price | $1,250,000 | SNLR 43% |
| New listings | 28 | 29-day avg DOM |
| Metric | Feb 2026 | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Avg price | $1,252,696 | n=6 sales |
| Median DOM | 6 days | Fastest in Aurora |
| New listings | 11 | SNLR 55% |
| Metric | Feb 2026 | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Avg price | $902,875 | Wide avg–median gap |
| Median price | $724,500 | Mix-driven |
| New listings | 27 | SNLR 30% |
| Metric | Feb 2026 | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Avg price | $1,076,000 | Avg–median inversion |
| Median price | $1,245,000 | n=3 sales |
| New listings | 8 | SNLR 38% |
| Metric | Feb 2026 | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Avg/Median price | $2,077,000 | n=2, both equal |
| Avg DOM | 78 days | Typical for luxury |
| New listings | 9 | SNLR 22% |
| Metric | Feb 2026 | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Avg price | $1,350,963 | Large avg–median gap |
| Median price | $1,129,000 | n=3 sales |
| New listings | 3 | 3 listings : 3 sales |
Community-level data uses median (not average) to reduce sensitivity to outliers. All neighbourhoods had low monthly sales volume (n=1–12) — interpret percentages as directional. All figures sourced from TRREB MLS® data for February 2026. Subject to revision.
What February 2026 Means for Aurora Buyers & Sellers
For Investors: Aurora's rental market remains active, driven by GO Train commuters, Southlake hospital staff, and York Region relocations. Townhomes in the $850K–$870K range have been achieving gross rents in the range of $2,800–$3,100/month depending on finish and proximity to GO — though individual results vary and buyers should conduct their own due diligence. Gross cap rates in this range are approximately 4–4.5%, which remains compressed relative to historical norms. The long-term demand fundamentals — population growth, transit investment, employment anchors — support the case for patient, buy-and-hold positioning.
For Renters: Aurora's rental supply has increased meaningfully since 2024, giving renters more negotiating room on lease terms and move-in incentives than in prior years. Average asking rents for a 2-bedroom unit in Aurora are in the $2,400–$2,700/month range as of early 2026. Proximity to Aurora GO Station and Yonge Street VIVA rapid transit are consistent premiums worth accounting for in your search.
For Landlords: Vacancy rates have edged up modestly as new supply comes online. Pricing to market and ensuring units are well-maintained is increasingly important to minimize vacancy between tenancies. The Aurora rental market remains fundamentally healthy but the days of automatic over-asking rent offers have passed for most unit types.
Aurora Housing Market — Common Questions Answered
What is the average home price in Aurora in 2026?+
Is Aurora a buyer’s or seller’s market right now?+
Will Aurora home prices drop further in 2026?+
What are the best neighbourhoods in Aurora?+
How far is Aurora from Toronto?+
What schools are in Aurora?+
Is now a good time to buy a home in Aurora?+
How much do I need for a down payment on an Aurora home?+
The data presented in this report is sourced from the TRREB MLS® System and reflects resale transactions recorded in February 2026 in Aurora, Ontario. All metrics are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial or investment advice. MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association. Matthew Gizzie is a registered REALTOR® with Keller Williams Realty Centres, Brokerage. Data is derived from TRREB MLS® dashboard screenshots provided for February 2026. Neighbourhood-level data is as reported. Price trend chart prior months (Feb 2025–Jan 2026) are estimated based on York Region trends — only February 2026 is sourced directly from TRREB. All figures are subject to TRREB revision.
