Aurora Real Estate Market — September 2026
September 2026 was a buyer's market in Aurora: 30% of new listings sold, inventory sits at 5.3 months, and 82% of sales over the past year closed below list price.
June passed the test. The summer did not hold it.
Sales peaked at 77 in June with inventory at 4.25 months, then eased to 59 sales and 5.34 months by September. The 12-month average price is $1,216,363, 16.1% below its August 2022 peak.
Market phase: soft, buyers in control. Supply is shrinking, but prices are falling faster than they were a year ago.
Aurora Housing Market — September 2026 At a Glance
September 2026 was a buyer's market in Aurora. Sales came in at 59, 13.2% fewer than a year earlier, and the median price was $960,000, down 8.1%. Supply is easing too: active listings are 9.0% lower than last September. Compare with the York Region housing market and, for a neighbouring market, the Newmarket real estate market report. Every figure below is compared with the same month a year earlier, which removes the seasonal swing that month-to-month comparisons carry.
September 2026 — Full Breakdown
Prices, inventory, what's moving and what's sitting — explained in plain language. Subscribe to get every monthly market video the moment it drops.
Subscribe at youtube.com/@matthewgizzie — monthly market breakdowns for York Region buyers and sellers.
September Market Analysis in Aurora Today
The same numbers, written up for local readers each month.
Matthew's monthly read on the numbers, written for local readers.
Is Aurora a Buyer's or Seller's Market? — September 2026
The cleanest single read on who holds the leverage is the share of new listings that sell. Under 40% is a buyer's market and over 60% is a seller's market. We show it three ways, because one month can swing: the latest month, the last three months and the last twelve.
Balance Meter
The needle shows the latest month, which can swing. The three- and 12-month reads are steadier.
Seven signals, Jul to Sep 2026 against the same months a year earlier.
Hotter means tighter for buyers; cooler means more room. A signal moves only when it changes by a set amount: 5% for sales and listings, 2% for price, 3 points for the ratios, 0.3 months for inventory.
35% of new listings sold over the last 12 months. The median since 2010 is 58%.
5.66 months on the three-month measure, against 6.03 a year earlier. How long the current stock of listings would last at the current pace of sales.
Every Month Since 2010 — Share of New Listings That Sold
Charcoal favours buyers, gold favours sellers, and the pale middle is balanced. Read across a row to see the season; read down a column to compare the same month over 17 years.
Best positioned right now: Buyers with financing in place, especially for condo townhouses, where 28% of new listings sold, 90% of sales closed below list and inventory is 7.06 months. Move-up buyers are well placed too: semi-detacheds and row townhouses sell in a balanced market (47% and 41% of new listings sold) while detached homes are bought in a buyer's market (34%).
Most pressure: Sellers priced to last year's market. Over the last 12 months, 48 listings were pulled for every 100 that came to market, against a long-run norm of 30.
Not sure what 5.3 months of inventory means for your situation?
Get a Custom Breakdown →Aurora Home Price Trends — 2010 to September 2026
One month's average price moves with the mix of homes that happened to sell, and Aurora's monthly sales count is small enough to make that swing large. To see the real trend we use the 12-month average: total dollar volume divided by total sales over the trailing year. On that measure Aurora peaked at $1,450,143 in August 2022 and now stands at $1,216,363, 16.1% lower. That is still shallower than the earlier correction, which bottomed 20.7% below its peak in August 2019.
12-month average $1,216,363, −9.3% on the year.
12-month average price against its highest level to that point. Zero means a new high. Today: −16.1%.
| Month | Median Price | Average Price | Sales | Median vs a Year Earlier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 ✦ | $960,000 | $1,136,837 | 59 | −8.1% |
| Aug 2026 | $908,000 | $1,063,864 | 50 | −23.2% |
| Jul 2026 | $1,220,000 | $1,292,332 | 61 | +4.7% |
| Jun 2026 | $1,205,000 | $1,262,127 | 77 | +5.2% |
| May 2026 | $1,145,000 | $1,177,248 | 69 | 0.0% |
| Apr 2026 | $1,025,000 | $1,197,148 | 67 | −14.6% |
| Mar 2026 | $1,055,000 | $1,172,960 | 48 | −7.0% |
| Feb 2026 | $1,165,944 | $1,244,082 | 42 | +9.5% |
| Jan 2026 | $1,048,000 | $1,179,793 | 29 | −15.1% |
| Dec 2025 | $1,157,500 | $1,248,579 | 38 | −8.3% |
| Nov 2025 | $1,130,000 | $1,289,994 | 49 | −10.5% |
| Oct 2025 | $1,150,000 | $1,293,071 | 69 | −7.6% |
| Sep 2025 | $1,045,000 | $1,190,221 | 68 | −23.7% |
How Much Are Aurora Buyers Negotiating?
Whether homes sell above or below their list price is the most direct measure of who is negotiating from strength. At the height of the last cycle, in May 2022, 66% of Aurora homes sold above list over the year. Today 82% sell below it.
Each month's share weighted by that month's sales and averaged over 12 months. Above and below are measured against the original list price.
Aurora Home Prices by Property Type — Detached, Condo & Townhouse
Detached homes are 59% of Aurora's resale activity. Every property type is below its price peak, by 15.8% to 21.8%, so the correction is market-wide and not a shift in what is selling. Conditions are not uniform: semi-detacheds and row townhouses are balanced, the rest favour buyers. Figures here cover the last 12 months, because the smaller types record fewer than ten sales in a typical month. Investors can cross-check the real estate investor guide and the investment deal analyzer.
Total dollar volume divided by sales over the trailing 12 months, for each property type.
The Last 12 Months by Property Type
| Property Type | Sales | Share | Average Price | vs Year Ago | From Peak | Listings Sold | Below List | Active | Months Inv. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All homes | 658 | 100% | $1,216,363 | −9.3% | −16.1% | 35% | 82% | 315 | 5.66 |
| Detached | 385 | 59% | $1,486,525 | −10.3% | −16.4% | 34% | 78% | 178 | 5.93 |
| Semi-detached | 40 | 6% | $878,864 | −15.2% | −21.8% | 47% | 90% | 13 | 3.25 |
| Row townhouse | 105 | 16% | $924,110 | −9.3% | −20.2% | 41% | 86% | 35 | 4.57 |
| Condo townhouse | 59 | 9% | $809,907 | −10.6% | −15.8% | 28% | 90% | 40 | 7.06 |
| Condo apartment | 55 | 8% | $614,731 | −13.8% | −18.9% | 37% | 84% | 28 | 4.67 |
All homes also counts link homes and other types not listed, so shares do not add to 100%. Months of inventory is the three-month measure.
Current Active Inventory Snapshot
Is Now a Good Time to Upgrade in Aurora?
A move-up buyer sells and buys in the same market, so what matters is the gap between the two homes, not the level of prices. We track that gap every month back to 2010. Today a detached home costs 60.9% more than a row townhouse, against a long-run median of 62.9%. In other words the step up is priced about normally. What has changed is the dollar amount: $562,414 today, down from $664,222 at its widest in July 2025. Review the full buyer's guide for York Region before making your move.
| Upgrade Path | Selling (12-Mo Avg) | Buying (12-Mo Avg) | Step Up | Premium | Typical Since 2010 | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Row townhouse → Detached | $924,110 | $1,486,525 | $562,414 | +60.9% | +62.9% | In line with normal |
| Semi-detached → Detached | $878,864 | $1,486,525 | $607,661 | +69.1% | +64.5% | Wider than usual |
| Condo townhouse → Detached | $809,907 | $1,486,525 | $676,618 | +83.5% | +86.3% | In line with normal |
| Condo apartment → Row townhouse | $614,731 | $924,110 | $309,379 | +50.3% | +46.2% | Wider than usual |
| Condo apartment → Semi-detached | $614,731 | $878,864 | $264,133 | +43.0% | +44.4% | In line with normal |
| Condo townhouse → Row townhouse | $809,907 | $924,110 | $114,203 | +14.1% | +17.0% | In line with normal |
A free home valuation gives you your current equity position, the essential first step before any move-up decision. Also review the seller's guide to understand your net proceeds. Get a Free Valuation →
The premium has ranged from +46.1% in April 2020 to +80.0% in October 2011. It was lower than today in 41% of earlier months.
Thinking about upgrading? Find out what your current home is worth first.
Free Home Valuation →Aurora Neighbourhoods — Where to Buy in 2026
Each Aurora neighbourhood has its own price point, property mix and pace. For adjacent markets, compare with the Newmarket real estate report and the Richmond Hill market report. A neighbourhood sees only a handful of sales in any one month, so the figures below cover the full 12 months to September 2026, which is the shortest window that gives a reliable read.
Supply Pressure by Community — 12 Months to September 2026
| Community | Sales | Average Price | vs Year Ago | Listings Sold | Below List | Active | Months Inv. | Condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora Highlands | 136 | $1,254,835 | −5.1% | 35% | 76% | 56 | 5.25 | Buyer-leaning |
| Aurora Village | 104 | $1,021,610 | −16.5% | 31% | 88% | 63 | 5.73 | Buyer-leaning |
| Rural Aurora | 99 | $1,329,008 | −2.6% | 44% | 78% | 37 | 5.55 | Balanced |
| Bayview Wellington | 83 | $932,049 | −8.6% | 42% | 88% | 27 | 3.38 | Balanced |
| Bayview Northeast | 75 | $1,168,478 | −11.1% | 33% | 80% | 31 | 3.58 | Buyer-leaning |
| Aurora Heights | 66 | $1,046,777 | −11.1% | 37% | 77% | 28 | 8.40 | Buyer-leaning |
| Aurora Estates | 26 | $1,650,969 | −19.8% | 16% | 92% | 43 | 25.80 | Buyer-leaning |
| Aurora Grove | 26 | $1,048,840 | −12.5% | 47% | 85% | 8 | 4.80 | Balanced |
| Hills of St Andrew | 26 | $1,787,000 | −9.9% | 43% | 88% | 8 | 3.00 | Balanced |
| Bayview Southeast | 17 | $2,420,576 | −14.9% | 27% | 76% | 14 | 10.50 | Buyer-leaning |
Listings sold = sales ÷ new listings over 12 months. Above 60% = seller-leaning; 40–60% = balanced; below 40% = buyer-leaning. Average prices cover all property types, so a change in the mix of homes sold can move a neighbourhood's average as much as the market does.
Buying or Selling in Aurora? September 2026 Strategy Guide
Buyers hold the leverage. The asking-price gap is the whole story.
The median listing asks $1,194,000; the median sale closes at $960,000. 82% of sales over the last year closed below list, and 48 of every 100 listings were pulled without selling. Homes priced to today's market sold in a median of 25 days.
Price is the strategy. Timing is not. Talk to Matthew directly →
Aurora Investment & Rental Market Outlook — 2026
The average lease signed through the MLS in Aurora over the last 12 months was $2,985 a month, down 3.3% on the year. The headline moves with the mix of unit sizes, so read it by bedroom count: 1-bedroom −5.8%, 2-bedroom −2.5%, 3-bedroom −2.3%, 4-bedroom +2.8%. Here the drop is real, not a mix effect: 3 of the four sizes rent for less than a year ago. See the full Aurora rental market report.
Total lease value divided by leases signed over the trailing 12 months, for each bedroom count.
| Bedrooms | Leases, 12 Months | Average Rent | vs Year Ago | From Peak | Listings Leased | Active | Median Days to Lease |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 bedroom | 83 | $1,840 | −5.8% | −8.0% | 41% | 27 | 41 |
| 2 bedroom | 140 | $2,252 | −2.5% | −7.9% | 48% | 35 | 20 |
| 3 bedroom | 226 | $3,075 | −2.3% | −7.1% | 69% | 23 | 22 |
| 4 bedroom | 133 | $4,135 | +2.8% | −4.0% | 68% | 22 | 24 |
For Investors
For Renters
For Landlords
Rents are averages of leases signed through the MLS® over the last 12 months. The gross yield compares average rent with average sale price for row townhouses; they are not the same homes, so treat it as a rough guide.
Want to Know What This Market Means for You?
Every situation is different. I break down your exact position — whether you're buying, selling, or investing — using the current Aurora data.
Aurora Real Estate FAQ — Prices, Market & Neighbourhoods
Prices & Market Conditions
Neighbourhoods & Community
Buying & Selling
Aurora Real Estate Forecast — What to Watch in October & November 2026
In March we set a test for whether the spring improvement was a structural recovery: 45 or more sales a month with inventory at 4.5 months or less. Here is how each of the last 12 months scored. One month passed (June 2026). September cleared the sales line at 59, but inventory of 5.34 months did not.
Gold: recovery test met. Charcoal: caution (sales under 40, or inventory over 5.5 months). Pale: in between.
Inventory moving back to 4.5 months or less while sales hold at 45 or more through the fall. Last year sales were 69 in October and 49 in November, so holding near those levels with fewer listings would tighten the market. Watch the share of sales closing below list: it eased to 85% over the last three months.
Sales below 40 a month before December, or inventory above 5.5 months. The 12-month average price is falling 9.3% a year, faster than a year ago; until that rate eases, the correction is still running. The Bank of Canada's next rate decision is October 28.
This is what separates informed decisions from guesswork. Bookmark the Aurora real estate market 2026 report — updated monthly, with every month back to 2010.
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Related Reports & Resources
Coverage
Resale transactions and leases recorded through the MLS® for Aurora, Ontario. Source: HabiStat MLS® statistics, all associations, monthly from January 2010 to September 2026. Excludes new construction sold by builders, assignment sales and private sales. The current partial month is reported separately and left out of every calculation.
Key Definitions
Share of new listings sold (SNLR): sales divided by new listings in the period. Months of inventory: how long active listings would last at the current pace of sales; the three-month measure uses the trailing three months of sales. 12-month average price: total dollar volume divided by total sales over the trailing 12 months. Sale-to-list: sale price as a percentage of list price. Distance from peak: the 12-month average price against its highest level to that point.
How the Reads Are Made
Market phase compares the latest three months with the same three months a year earlier and tags each signal hotter, cooler or steady by a fixed threshold. The balance meter treats under 40% of new listings selling as a buyer's market and over 60% as a seller's market. These are rules applied to the data, not forecasts.
Limitations
Figures by property type or neighbourhood rest on smaller samples and can move with the mix of homes sold, which is why they are shown over 12 months. Average rents cover leases through the MLS® only. All data is subject to revision.
Editorial Notes
Neighbourhood descriptions and commute times are editorial and are not appraisals. Commute times reflect typical off-peak conditions.
All metrics are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association. Matthew Gizzie is a registered REALTOR® with Keller Williams Realty Centres, Brokerage.
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