Matthew's Aurora and Newmarket market data was cited today in both Aurora Today and Newmarket Today — because when journalists need a reliable read on York Region real estate, this is where they come. Below is the full analysis behind those comments, with 15 years of data behind every number.

To start with the honest headline: 2026 has not opened the way most people hoped it would. February was a mixed bag depending on which market you were looking at, and March has confirmed what February was hinting at — buyers are firmly in control and there is no spring surge materializing.

When you go back through 15 years of data — and we're talking January 2011 through today — the current environment stands out not just for weak sales volume, but for a combination of macro headwinds that have no real precedent in this dataset. Job losses, an oil shock from a war nobody predicted, unresolved trade uncertainty, and the tail-end of the most aggressive rate cycle in 40 years. It's a lot to absorb. And the housing numbers reflect it.

In Aurora, February showed some year-over-year improvement on the surface. We recorded 43 sales — up 34% from February 2025 — and the median price came in at $1,171,888, up 10% year-over-year. On paper, that reads like progress.

But the context matters: February 2025 was one of the worst Februaries Aurora had seen in over a decade. We had only 32 sales and an SNLR of 26%. Beating those numbers isn't a recovery — it's bouncing off a floor. And the floor itself is still a long way down from where this market was.

Then March arrived and the numbers are striking. Through March 18th, Aurora has recorded just 19 sales, with 259 active listings, an SNLR of 20%, and months of inventory at 6.64. We are on pace for the lowest March sales total since we began tracking this data in 2011 — lower than March 2025's already-record 42, and on track to finish below even April 2020 when COVID effectively shut the market down mid-month and still produced 44 sales. Inventory is building, not shrinking, as we move into what should be the strongest selling season of the year.

The peak of this cycle was February 2022. In Aurora, the median price hit $1,500,000 — and buyers were paying 117% of list price. In Newmarket, the median reached $1,350,000 and the SP/LP ratio hit 120%. Homes were selling in 7–8 days. Months of inventory in both markets was below one.

Four years later, Aurora's median is down $328,000 from that peak — a decline of 21.9%. Newmarket's median is down $455,000, or 33.7%. These are the largest price corrections in dollar terms that either market has experienced since we began tracking in 2011. The 2017 correction, which felt dramatic at the time, produced a median price decline of roughly $312,500, or about 30%, from peak to trough in Newmarket. The current cycle has produced a correction nearly 45% larger than that in absolute dollars.

Newmarket tells a different story, and I want to be straightforward about it. February was genuinely weak. Sales fell 32% year-over-year to 47 transactions. The median price fell 18.3% year-over-year to $895,000 — the lowest February median Newmarket has recorded since 2020. Average days on market climbed to 42, up from 26 a year ago.

A few of Newmarket's metrics are at their weakest readings since we began tracking in 2011 — and to be clear, 2011 is simply where our data starts, not a historical floor the market previously tested. The SP/LP of 97% in February is the lowest February reading since 2011. Even at the depths of the 2017–2018 correction it held at 98%. Annual sales in 2025 came in at 841 transactions — the lowest full-year volume in our dataset, in a town where 2,090 homes sold in 2016. Q1 2026 is tracking toward 114 total sales — the weakest opening quarter we have on record going back to 2011.

One number worth sitting with: despite all of this, Newmarket's median price is still 18.5% above February 2019's $755,000. Buyers who purchased at the 2019 lows haven't been wiped out — they're sitting on real gains, roughly 2.5% compounded per year. Not the windfall the 2022 peak briefly promised, but not a disaster either.

Both markets are not uniformly weak — they are collections of micro-markets with meaningfully different supply-demand dynamics. The neighbourhood data is where you find the real story.

In Aurora, Bayview Northeast posted an SNLR of 55% with average DOM of 19 days — the closest thing to a seller-leaning pocket right now. Aurora Highlands was the most active community with 12 sales. These aren't exceptions to the rule — they're evidence that the rule in 2026 is execution, not timing. The right home in the right pocket, priced correctly, is still moving with purpose. If you're considering listing in Aurora, get a current home evaluation before you set a number.

In Newmarket, the divide is sharper and more telling. Huron Heights–Leslie Valley posted an SNLR of 75% — a genuinely seller-leaning community in a town with a 35% overall SNLR. Gorham–College Manor showed the strongest month-over-month median price momentum at +13.5%. These are the communities where the price reset has already brought values back to a level where real buyers are showing up. Woodland Hill (13% SNLR) and Glenway Estates (22%) are still working through significant oversupply — these are the pockets where sellers need the most realistic expectations.

The rental data deserves more attention than it typically gets — because it directly impacts investor demand, which in turn affects a meaningful portion of the for-sale supply. And right now, both markets are telling a story that landlords need to hear. For the full rental picture, see the Aurora rental market report and the Newmarket rental market report.

Newmarket's rental data is the most revealing. Volume surged 94.6% year-over-year — but prices collapsed. The median rent fell 20.8% to $2,100. This isn't a sign of strength; it's more supply competing for the same tenant pool. Landlords are cutting asking rents to transact.

The investor squeeze is real and it has three parts: asset values are down 25–32% from peak; mortgages are renewing at significantly higher rates; and achievable rents have dropped 10–20%. A landlord who bought in 2022 is facing all three simultaneously. The Newmarket rental market at a median of $2,100/month is roughly 42% below what would be needed to cash-flow a $900,000 property at current mortgage rates. That math does not work, and the for-sale market continues to absorb the consequences as investor-owned units come back onto the resale market. If you're an investor reassessing your position, the deal analyzer tool is worth running against your current numbers.

The local numbers don't exist in a vacuum. February and March 2026 have been shaped by a set of macro forces that are genuinely unusual in their combination and timing.