Newmarket Housing Market: Demand Reset Deepens Into 2026
When looking at the Newmarket housing market as a whole, 2025 stands out as a clear demand-driven slowdown rather than a temporary pause.
Total home sales finished the year at 838 transactions, down roughly 17% from 2024 and 15% from 2023. This decline was not primarily caused by forced selling. Instead, buyers remained cautious, and absorption consistently failed to keep pace with available listings.
Elevated Supply and Weak Liquidity
Supply remained elevated throughout 2025. Active listings peaked near 411 mid-year and finished December at 219, still about 59% higher than December 2023 and 52% higher than December 2024.
Months of inventory generally sat in the 4–6 month range, and sale-to-new-listing ratios hovered in the mid-20s to low-40s, keeping market conditions firmly in buyer-leaning territory. Homes also took longer to sell, with median days on market reaching 48 days by year-end.
Pricing Continued to Grind Lower
Pricing reflected this imbalance. Using median prices across all home types, Newmarket experienced a steady decline through 2025 rather than stabilization.
Median prices fell from approximately $1.10 million in January to $870,944 in December, a decline of roughly $219,000, or 20%. Prices were below prior-year levels in 11 of 12 months, confirming that downward pressure persisted throughout the year rather than being driven by seasonal effects.
Detached Homes: No Durable Floor Yet
Detached homes in Newmarket tell a similar story. Sales declined materially, with 500 detached transactions in 2025, down from 608 in 2024 and 634 in 2023 — an 18% year-over-year decline.
Inventory remained elevated, keeping months of inventory mostly between 4 and 6 months. Liquidity weakened further, with median days on market often sitting in the 20–40 day range, reaching 48 days in December.
From a pricing perspective, detached homes remain well below their 2022 peak. Median prices declined from roughly $1.55 million in early 2022 to approximately $1.085 million by December 2025, representing a 30% drop from peak. While there were brief periods of stabilization earlier in the year, prices weakened again in the second half, and December finished near the lower end of the annual range. A durable price floor has not yet been established.
Outlook for 2026
As with Aurora, Newmarket’s 2026 outlook will be shaped by mortgage rates, household cash flow, employment conditions, and consumer confidence. Inventory remains a critical variable — further listing growth without demand recovery would continue to pressure prices, although values are approaching levels where buyers are likely to re-engage.
Trade uncertainty between Canada and the U.S. also remains a headwind, influencing business confidence and employment decisions.
The most likely base case is another year resembling 2025: early-year activity followed by fading momentum as affordability constraints reassert themselves. Softening rents will likely reduce investor participation, while the mortgage renewal wave will add pressure for some households.
What This Means for Newmarket Sellers
For sellers, 2026 will reward execution, not optimism. Listings that rely on aspirational pricing or market testing are increasingly sitting. Transactions are occurring where pricing aligns with buyer reality, presentation removes friction, and strategy is clear from the outset.
In a buyer-leaning market with elevated inventory, adaptability is essential. Sellers who recognize where demand actually exists — and price accordingly — can still achieve strong results. Those who don’t risk being left behind.
This analysis was also featured in NewmarketToday and Aurora local media:
“No crash, no recovery: Aurora & Newmarket housing markets in a grinding reset heading into 2026”
https://www.newmarkettoday.ca/local-news/no-crash-no-recovery-aurora-newmarket-housing-markets-in-grinding-reset-heading-into-2026-11715347
About the Author
Matthew Gizzie is a Real Estate Agent based in Newmarket and Aurora, specializing in data-driven housing market analysis across York Region and Simcoe County. He is the co-host of The Economics of Real Estate, a weekly video and podcast focused on how economic trends shape local housing markets. His market commentary has been featured in regional news outlets across York Region.
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