Full Simcoe County Intelligence Report · Prepared by Matthew Gizzie, Keller Williams Realty Centres

Simcoe County Market Intelligence · [MONTH YEAR] Data

Simcoe County Real Estate Market 2026

Prices, Trends & Opportunities — Current home prices, market trends across Barrie, Innisfil, Bradford West Gwillimbury, and Springwater. Where pricing has softened, where value is emerging, and which communities show the best opportunities.

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Overview Freehold Condos Opportunities First-Time Buyers Investors Downsizers Rentals 16-Year Trends Local Breakdowns

Stats are based on [MONTH YEAR] Simcoe County District Real Estate Board reported activity for Simcoe County. Figures may not reflect every micro-market or property subtype. Information is for general informational purposes, not financial or legal advice.

Matthew's Market Lens

Simcoe County · All Types · [MONTH YEAR] · Source: Simcoe County DREB

Buyer Seller Investor

Median Price

[MEDIAN]

[PRICE_YOY] · Prices softening

Sales

[SALES]

[SALES_YOY] · Less competition

Months of Inv.

[MOI]

Buyer leverage

SNLR

[SNLR]

Buyer-leaning market

Active Listings

[ACTIVE]

High selection

Metric	Current	MoM	YoY
Median Price All Types · Prices falling = more affordable	[MEDIAN]	[MOM_PRICE] [MOM_PRICE_$]	[YOY_PRICE] [YOY_PRICE_$]
Sales Volume All Types · Fewer competing buyers	[SALES]	[MOM_SALES] [MOM_SALES_#]	[YOY_SALES] [YOY_SALES_#]
New Listings All Types · Fewer new options (selection tighter)	[LISTINGS]	[MOM_LISTINGS] [MOM_LISTINGS_#]	[YOY_LISTINGS] [YOY_LISTINGS_#]
Active Listings All Types · High = more selection for buyers	[ACTIVE]	[MOM_ACTIVE] [MOM_ACTIVE_#]	[YOY_ACTIVE] [YOY_ACTIVE_#]
Months of Inventory All Types · High = more negotiating leverage	[MOI]	[MOM_MOI] [MOI_PREV] → [MOI]	[YOY_MOI] [MOI_PRIOR_YR] → [MOI]
Days on Market All Types Avg · More time to evaluate	[DOM]	[MOM_DOM] [MOM_DOM_DAYS]	[YOY_DOM] [YOY_DOM_DAYS]
SNLR All Types · Low = buyers have the upper hand	[SNLR]	[MOM_SNLR] [SNLR_PREV] → [SNLR]	[YOY_SNLR] [SNLR_PRIOR_YR] → [SNLR]

Verdict: Strong Buyer Conditions. [X] of 6 indicators favour buyers. Prices are declining, inventory is elevated, and competition is at multi-year lows. Preparation and pre-approval are the keys to capitalizing.

Median Price

[MEDIAN]

↓6.0% YoY · Eroding equity

Sales

[SALES]

↓31.5% YoY · Fewer buyers

Months of Inv.

[MOI]

Oversupplied

SNLR

[SNLR]

Weak absorption

Active Listings

[ACTIVE]

Heavy competition

Metric	Current	MoM	YoY
Median Price All Types · Declining = lower offers expected	[MEDIAN]	[MOM_PRICE] [MOM_PRICE_$]	[YOY_PRICE] [YOY_PRICE_$]
Sales Volume All Types · Fewer active buyers in the market	[SALES]	[MOM_SALES] [MOM_SALES_#]	[YOY_SALES] [YOY_SALES_#]
New Listings All Types · Fewer new competitors listing	[LISTINGS]	[MOM_LISTINGS] [MOM_LISTINGS_#]	[YOY_LISTINGS] [YOY_LISTINGS_#]
Active Listings All Types · High = more competing listings	[ACTIVE]	[MOM_ACTIVE] [MOM_ACTIVE_#]	[YOY_ACTIVE] [YOY_ACTIVE_#]
Months of Inventory All Types · High = more competing listings	[MOI]	[MOM_MOI] [MOI_PREV] → [MOI]	[YOY_MOI] [MOI_PRIOR_YR] → [MOI]
Days on Market All Types Avg · Homes sitting longer	[DOM]	[MOM_DOM] [MOM_DOM_DAYS]	[YOY_DOM] [YOY_DOM_DAYS]
SNLR All Types · Low = buyers have more power	[SNLR]	[MOM_SNLR] [SNLR_PREV] → [SNLR]	[YOY_SNLR] [SNLR_PRIOR_YR] → [SNLR]

Verdict: Challenging Seller Conditions. 5 of 6 indicators are unfavourable. Pricing strategy is critical — homes priced at market are still selling, but overpriced listings are sitting. The one bright spot: fewer new listings means less direct competition if you price correctly.

Median Price

[MEDIAN]

↓6.0% YoY · Discounted entry

Sales

[SALES]

[SALES_YOY] · Less competition

Months of Inv.

[MOI]

Negotiate conditions

SNLR

[SNLR]

Buyer leverage

Active Listings

[ACTIVE]

Negotiating room

Metric	Current	MoM	YoY
Median Price All Types · Lower entry = better yield potential	[MEDIAN]	[MOM_PRICE] [MOM_PRICE_$]	[YOY_PRICE] [YOY_PRICE_$]
Sales Volume All Types · Fewer competing offers on deals	[SALES]	[MOM_SALES] [MOM_SALES_#]	[YOY_SALES] [YOY_SALES_#]
New Listings All Types · Fewer new opportunities entering market	[LISTINGS]	[MOM_LISTINGS] [MOM_LISTINGS_#]	[YOY_LISTINGS] [YOY_LISTINGS_#]
Active Listings All Types · High = negotiating leverage on entry	[ACTIVE]	[MOM_ACTIVE] [MOM_ACTIVE_#]	[YOY_ACTIVE] [YOY_ACTIVE_#]
Months of Inventory All Types · High = conditions, inspections, financing	[MOI]	[MOM_MOI] [MOI_PREV] → [MOI]	[YOY_MOI] [MOI_PRIOR_YR] → [MOI]
Days on Market All Types Avg · More time = better due diligence	[DOM]	[MOM_DOM] [MOM_DOM_DAYS]	[YOY_DOM] [YOY_DOM_DAYS]
SNLR All Types · Low = negotiate price and terms	[SNLR]	[MOM_SNLR] [SNLR_PREV] → [SNLR]	[YOY_SNLR] [SNLR_PRIOR_YR] → [SNLR]

Verdict: Favourable Acquisition Window. 5 of 6 indicators favour patient capital. Prices are discounted, sellers are accepting conditions, and competition is minimal. Stress-test at current rents, not projections — and use the Investment Deal Analyzer before making an offer.

Status determined by MOI + SNLR thresholds. Colour reflects perspective, not absolute market health.

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Simcoe County: 16-Year February Snapshot

How today's market compares to 16 years of February data — same month, apples-to-apples.

Source: Simcoe County DREB · February data only · All property types · All cities

Median Price February · All Types

$645,000 ↓13.2% from peak

Simcoe County Median Sale Price Feb 2010-2026

What this means: Simcoe prices have corrected 32% from the Feb 2022 peak ($953K → ~$645K). Current pricing is back to 2016–2017 levels. For buyers, this represents the most affordable entry point since pre-pandemic. For sellers, pricing must reflect this reality — the 2021–2022 run-up has fully unwound.

Transaction Volume February Sales · All Types

383 ↓23.4% YoY · Lowest since 2010

Simcoe County Transaction Volume Feb 2010-2026

What this means: February 2026 sales (383) are the lowest in 16 years — below even 2010 post-recession levels. Buyers are cautious and selective. For buyers, this means less competition and more negotiating leverage than any February in modern memory. For sellers, expect longer timelines and fewer showings.

New Listings Volume 1,277

New listings declining — fewer sellers entering. Supply maintained by existing inventory sitting longer.

Active Listings 3,512

Inventory rebuilt to near-historic highs (3,512). During the 2022 frenzy there were just 803 — 4.4× more selection today.

Average Days on Market 53

Longest February DOM in 16 years. Homes sitting 4.4× longer than the 2022 frenzy (12 days). Sellers: price right from day one.

Months of Inventory 8.18

Highest February MOI on record. Above 6 = deep buyer's market. The 2022 frenzy was 0.71 — buyers have 11.5× more leverage.

The Big Picture: Where Are We in the Cycle?

Simcoe County is in a clear buyer's market — the deepest in 16 years by every measure. Prices have corrected 32% from the Feb 2022 peak, sales volume is at the lowest February reading since 2010, DOM has more than quadrupled from the frenzy, and MOI at 8.18 is the highest on record. Inventory is abundant at 3,500+ active listings. For buyers: this is the strongest negotiating position in modern memory. For sellers: accurate pricing and presentation are critical — homes that are priced right are still selling, but the margin for error is zero. For investors: entry prices are compelling, but stress-test against continued softness before expecting appreciation.

Market Status: Softening (Buyer-Leaning)

Elevated inventory, declining prices year-over-year, and subdued absorption across most housing types. Sales down 31.5% YoY.

Status determined by MOI + SNLR thresholds shown in executive snapshot. Red = weak seller conditions / buyer leverage (not a "bad" market).

[MONTH YEAR] Market Overview

OVERVIEW

[MONTH YEAR] continues the pattern established in January. Across Simcoe County, sales volume dropped 31.5% year-over-year, inventory remains elevated, and pricing is under pressure in most segments. The detached median did bounce 5.9% month-over-month to [DET_MEDIAN] — a seasonal normalization — but remains down 4.1% from a year ago. Condos remain the weakest segment with [CONDO_MOI] months of inventory and median prices down 9.5% YoY. The one bright spot: semi-detached homes showed meaningful improvement, with SNLR surging to 47% and MOI dropping to [SEMI_MOI].

The Key Theme

This is not a uniform market. Detached homes, semi-detached, freehold townhomes, and condos are each in different phases of the cycle. Semi-detached is stabilizing. Townhomes just crossed into buyer-leaning territory. Condos remain deep in buyer-leaning conditions. Understanding those differences matters more than trying to time the "overall market."

Stabilizing

Semi-Detached

SNLR 47% · MOI [SEMI_MOI]

Softening

Detached

MOI [DET_MOI] · SNLR 29%

Buyer-Leaning

Townhomes

MOI 5.05 · SNLR 32% · SP/LP 100%

Deep Buyer Leverage

Condos

MOI [CONDO_MOI] · SNLR 28% · Median ↓9.5%

Freehold Market Conditions

FREEHOLD

[MONTH YEAR] shows continued pressure in the Simcoe County freehold market: sales dropped 32.4% year over year for detached homes, months of inventory rose to [DET_MOI], and median prices declined 4.1% from last year. The detached median did bounce 5.9% month-over-month to [DET_MEDIAN] — seasonal normalization — but the broader trend remains soft. Semi-detached was the surprise improver, with SNLR surging to 47% and MOI falling to [SEMI_MOI].

Freehold Market Snapshot

— Detached sales down 32.4% YoY (267 vs 395) with MOI at [DET_MOI]

— Semi-detached stabilizing: SNLR 47% (+14 percentage points MoM), MOI [SEMI_MOI] (now balanced range)

— Townhomes crossed into buyer-leaning territory — MOI rose from 4.23 → 5.05 (+19.4% MoM)

— Prices have softened YoY across all freehold types, though not uniformly

— New listings down 28.7% YoY — supply is tightening even as demand remains weak

Condo Market Conditions

CONDO

[MONTH YEAR] shows continued softening in the Simcoe County condo market: sales were down 29.1% year over year, inventory rose to [CONDO_MOI] months, and median prices declined 9.5% versus last year to [CONDO_MEDIAN]. The condo segment remains the weakest part of the Simcoe County market with 939 active listings competing for just 112 buyers.

Condo Market Snapshot

— Sales down 29.1% YoY (112 vs 158) — weakest buyer urgency of any segment

— MOI at [CONDO_MOI], up from 5.40 a year ago — deep buyer's market

— Median price [CONDO_MEDIAN], down 9.5% YoY — steepest decline of any segment

— SNLR at 28% — listings heavily outpacing sales

What This Means

This doesn't mean condos are "bad" assets — it means pricing power currently sits with buyers, not sellers. For first-time buyers, this can create entry value at the lowest relative prices since 2020. For condo sellers, expectations need to be grounded in current demand conditions. SP/LP at 97% means buyers are negotiating — price sharp from day one.

Market Performance by Segment

Each segment is in a different phase of the cycle. [MONTH YEAR] data.

Detached Homes

SOFTENING

Median Price

[DET_MEDIAN]

-4.1% · -[PCT_4]K YoY

Sales

267

-32.4% · -128 YoY

Months of Inv.

[DET_MOI]

>5 · Buyer-leaning

[MONTH YEAR] shows continued pressure in the Simcoe County detached market: sales dropped 32.4% year over year (267 vs 395), months of inventory rose to [DET_MOI] (up from 4.76 a year ago), and median prices declined 4.1% YoY to [DET_MEDIAN]. Prices did bounce 5.9% month-over-month, reflecting seasonal normalization after a slow January. However, the SNLR remains at just 29%, well below the 40% balanced threshold. Days on market averaged 38, up significantly from 27 a year ago. Sellers need sharp pricing from day one — overpriced listings are sitting. See how I help sellers position competitively.

Semi-Detached

STABILIZING

Median Price

[SEMI_MEDIAN]

-7.9% · -[PCT_3]K YoY

SNLR

47%

+14 percentage points MoM

Months of Inv.

[SEMI_MOI]

-17.6% MoM · Tightening

The semi-detached segment is the surprise improver in February. The SNLR surged to 47% (up from 33% in January), and months of inventory dropped to [SEMI_MOI] — now within balanced territory (3–5 range). Median price rose 6.3% month-over-month to [SEMI_MEDIAN]. While prices remain down 7.9% year-over-year, the absorption metrics are moving in the right direction. With only 132 active listings and 62 new listings in February, this is the tightest supply of any freehold segment. Low volume means high variability, but the trend is positive.

Townhomes

BUYER-LEANING

Median Price

[TH_MEDIAN]

-8.3% · -[PCT_2]K YoY

Sales

-29.9% · -32 YoY

Months of Inv.

5.05

>5 · Buyer-leaning

Townhomes shifted from Neutral to Buyer-Leaning this month as MOI crossed above 5.0 (now 5.05, up from 4.23 in January). Sales dropped 29.9% year-over-year, and the SNLR sits at 32%. The median price is [TH_MEDIAN], down 8.3% from [DET_PRICE_ALT2] a year ago. There are 444 active listings competing for just 75 buyers this month. The median LDOM of 23 days is up from 15 a year ago. That said, the SP/LP ratio held at 100%, suggesting that well-priced townhomes are still transacting near asking — it's the overpriced inventory that's sitting.

Condos

SOFTENING

Median Price

[CONDO_MEDIAN]

-9.5% · -[PCT_4]K YoY

Sales

112

-29.1% · -46 YoY

Months of Inv.

[CONDO_MOI]

>5 · Deep buyer-leaning

The condo segment remains the weakest in Simcoe County. MOI rose to [CONDO_MOI] (up from 7.54 in January and 5.40 a year ago), and the SNLR sits at just 28%. The median price declined 9.5% year-over-year to [CONDO_MEDIAN] — the steepest drop of any segment. There are 939 active condo listings competing for 112 buyers. For sellers, expectations must be calibrated to current demand. For buyers, this is the most leverage you've had in years — negotiate hard on price and conditions.

Where the Real Opportunities Are

[MONTH YEAR]: Simcoe County's price correction has created opportunities across segments. Detached homes averaging ~$800K offer significant value versus comparable GTA properties. First-time buyers and investors are finding entry points that were inaccessible during 2021–2022 peaks.

The Move-Up Window: Townhomes & Semis → Detached

For homeowners currently in freehold townhomes or semi-detached properties, the detached median at [DET_MEDIAN] versus the townhome median at [TH_MEDIAN] represents a [RENT_DELTA]K gap. While detached prices have fallen faster in dollar terms than townhomes, the relative move-up cost remains manageable — and buyers stepping up benefit from elevated detached inventory (MOI [DET_MOI]) and stronger negotiating leverage than a year ago.

— Detached premium vs townhomes/semis has compressed versus recent years

— Relative upgrade costs are compressed vs last several years

— Creates a more favourable window for move-up buyers

The Move-Down Opportunity: Detached → Condo

For homeowners considering downsizing from detached homes into condos or townhomes, Simcoe County offers compelling options. Barrie's growing condo market and new-build townhomes in Bradford and Innisfil provide modern, lower-maintenance alternatives. The spread between detached and condo pricing creates equity-unlock opportunities, though Simcoe's condo market is smaller and less liquid than the GTA's.

— Detached premium vs condos is large versus recent years

— Pricing spread benefits sellers of detached homes

— Downsizers can unlock [PRICE_ALT2]K+ in equity moving to lower-maintenance housing

Best Entry Points for First-Time Buyers

FIRST-TIME BUYERS

For buyers entering the Simcoe County market for the first time, relative value and long-term stability differ meaningfully by housing type. The best entry point depends on whether your priority is lower upfront cost or longer-term equity stability.

Best Relative Value: Condo Apartments

Condo apartments are trading at their lowest relative value compared to freehold housing since 2020. At a median of [CONDO_MEDIAN] (down 9.5% YoY), this makes condos the most accessible entry point for first-time buyers focused on minimizing upfront purchase price and initial financial exposure. With [CONDO_MOI] months of inventory, you have time and leverage to negotiate.

Best Long-Term Stability: Freehold Townhomes

Freehold townhomes have historically shown the most consistent relative performance across market cycles. At a median of [TH_MEDIAN] (down 8.3% YoY), the entry cost is higher but you avoid condo fees and hold a freehold asset. For buyers prioritizing long-term equity growth and reduced volatility, freehold townhomes offer a more stable entry point into ownership.

The Trade-Off

Condos provide lower-cost market entry ([CONDO_P]K median), while freehold townhomes offer greater long-term price stability ([TH_P]K median). The optimal choice depends on personal budget constraints, time horizon, and risk tolerance. See how I help first-time buyers navigate this decision.

What Investors Should Be Watching

INVESTORS

Simcoe County investment conditions — [MONTH YEAR].

Rental Yield Conditions

Avg Rent (Condo)

[RENT_ALL]

-3.6% · -[PCT_1] YoY

Condo SNLR (Lease)

67%

60% → 67%

Rents are declining while purchase prices are also softening, compressing gross yields. Condo rental SNLR improved to 67% (from 60% YoY), suggesting rental demand is holding even as rents edge down. Cash flow-positive deals remain difficult without 30%+ down payments.

Watch for: Cap rate improvements if purchase prices fall faster than rents. Condo apartments at [CONDO_P]K median with [RENT_ALL] avg rent give the tightest spread.

Acquisition Conditions

Condo MOI

[CONDO_MOI]

Max buyer leverage

Condo Median Price

[CONDO_MEDIAN]

-9.5% YoY discount

939 active condo listings competing for 112 buyers. SP/LP at 97% means there's room to negotiate below asking. Motivated sellers are accepting conditions and price reductions not available 12 months ago.

Best segments: Condo apartments for lowest entry cost ([CONDO_P]K median). Semi-detached showing improving absorption (SNLR 47%, MOI [SEMI_MOI]) — watch for stabilization.

The Bottom Line for Investors: This is a market for patient capital, not speculation. Focus on acquisition price discipline, stress-test at current rents (not projected), and target segments where demand fundamentals remain intact. Use the Investment Deal Analyzer to run the numbers before making offers.

Downsizing in This Market

DOWNSIZERS

The detached-to-condo spread continues to favour downsizers. [MONTH YEAR] data.

The Equity Unlock

Detached Median

[DET_MEDIAN]

+5.9% MoM bounce

Condo Median

[CONDO_MEDIAN]

-9.5% YoY · Buy low

The spread between detached median ([DET_MEDIAN]) and condo median ([CONDO_MEDIAN]) is [PRICE_ALT]. Sell detached, buy condo, and unlock significant equity. Condo prices are at their lowest relative value since 2020, meaning the buy-side math is historically favourable for downsizers.

Timing & Execution

Detached DOM

38 days

[YOY_DOM_DAYS] YoY

Condo Inventory

[CONDO_MOI] mo

939 active · Lots of choice

The sell side requires patience — detached homes averaged 38 days on market (up from 27 a year ago) and SP/LP at 97% means buyers are negotiating. On the buy side, 939 active condo listings and [CONDO_MOI] months of inventory give you time, choice, and negotiating leverage. Price your detached home realistically to move it, then take your time on the condo purchase.

The Bottom Line for Downsizers: The [RENT_CONDO]K detached-to-condo spread is working in your favour. You're selling from relative strength (detached still commands premium) and buying into weakness (condo prices at relative lows). Start with a free home valuation to understand your sell-side number.

Risk & Leverage Signals

What to watch heading into spring 2026.

Market Softening Signals

● Detached MOI at [DET_MOI] — up from 4.76 a year ago (+46%)

● Condo MOI at [CONDO_MOI] — deepest buyer's market of any segment

● Sales volume down 31.5% YoY — demand remains suppressed

● Townhomes crossed into buyer-leaning territory (MOI 5.05)

Stabilization / Recovery Signals

● Semi-detached SNLR surged to 47% (+14 percentage points MoM) — approaching balanced

● New listings down 28.7% YoY — supply tightening across all types

● Detached median bounced +5.9% MoM — seasonal recovery beginning

● DOM improved MoM across most segments — faster absorption vs January

Bank of Canada Rate Outlook CORRA forwards as of Feb 22, 2026

Announcement	Hold at 2.25%	Cut to 2.00%
Mar 18, 2026	99%	1%
Apr 29, 2026	95%	5%
Jun 10, 2026	90%	10%
Jul 15, 2026	83%	17%
Sep 2, 2026	73%	27%
Oct 28, 2026	71%	29%
Dec 9, 2026	80%	20%
Jan 27, 2027*	94%	6%
Mar 17, 2027*	90%	10%

What this means: Markets are pricing in a prolonged hold at 2.25% through most of 2026. The highest cut probability peaks at just 29% (October). These are market-implied probabilities, not a forecast. For buyers, this means don't rely on rate relief as your plan — lock in current pricing leverage instead. For sellers, rate-driven demand recovery is unlikely in the near term.

Source: CORRA forward contracts. Probabilities are market-implied and can shift with economic data. *Tentative dates.

Simcoe County Rental Market

[MONTH YEAR] · Lease volume down 7.1% YoY, rents softening.

Total Leases

[LEASE_VOL]

-7.1% · -66 YoY

Avg Rent (Condo)

[RENT_ALL]

-3.6% · -[PCT_1] YoY

Avg Rent (Detached)

[RENT_DET]

-6.5% · -[RENT_DELTA2] YoY

Condo SNLR (Lease)

67%

60% → 67%

Property Type	Avg Rent	Median	Leases	SNLR	Avg DOM
Detached	[RENT_DET]	[RENT_4]	218	45%	[DOM]
Semi-Detached	[RENT_ALL2]	[RENT_3]	38	37%	31
Attached Row Townhomes	[RENT_DET2]	[RENT_TH]	109	56%	36
Condo Apartments	[RENT_ALL]	[RENT_SEMI]	501	67%	31

[UPDATE WITH SIMCOE COUNTY DREB RENTAL DATA] Simcoe County's rental market is smaller and less liquid than the GTA's. Rental demand is concentrated in Barrie (the county's urban centre) and to a lesser extent Bradford West Gwillimbury, with more limited activity in Innisfil and rural municipalities. Rental prices are expected to soften as supply increases. Investors should stress-test rental assumptions carefully — vacancy rates and tenant demand vary significantly between Barrie's urban core and surrounding rural communities.

Simcoe County Local Market Breakdowns

Hyper-local insights by community.

Barrie Real Estate Market 2026 → Innisfil Real Estate Market 2026 → Bradford West Gwillimbury Real Estate Market 2026 → Springwater Real Estate Market 2026 →

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Buyers

Inventory is elevated and pricing power sits with you. See how I help buyers navigate this market — from property matching and negotiation strategy to the incentives I offer that other agents don't.

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