Aurora Housing Market Outlook: A Grinding Reset, Not a Crash

When you step back and look at the Aurora housing market as a whole, 2025 was not a crash year — but it was not a healthy one either. What played out was a slow, grinding reset in demand driven by affordability pressures and weakened confidence, not forced selling.

Total home sales in Aurora fell to 612 transactions in 2025, down roughly 24% from 2024 and 26% from 2023. Importantly, this decline was not the result of widespread distress or panic selling. Instead, buyers largely chose to remain on the sidelines as higher borrowing costs and economic uncertainty reshaped affordability.

Supply Built While Demand Stayed Weak

While demand softened, supply continued to build. Active listings peaked near 360 homes mid-year and finished December at 198, still approximately 57% higher than December 2023. Months of inventory sat in the 5–7 month range for much of the year, keeping market conditions firmly tilted toward buyers.

Liquidity also weakened. Homes took longer to sell, with median days on market rising to 37 days by year-end, roughly double what was typical during the 2021 and early-2022 cycle. Demand simply failed to keep pace with available supply.

Pricing: A Correction Already Absorbed

From a pricing standpoint, Aurora has already absorbed a meaningful correction. From the 2022 peak through the end of 2025, both average and median prices declined by roughly 24%.

Prices continued to drift lower through 2025, but at a slower pace than in 2024. There was no meaningful rebound or momentum recovery. Rather than a recovery year, 2025 resembled a period of post-shock stabilization in a market where participation remained subdued.

Detached Homes vs. Townhomes

Detached homes and townhomes showed different adjustment paths.

Detached prices are down approximately 25–30% from their 2022 peak. While prices were volatile month-to-month in 2025, they stopped making new cycle lows toward the end of the year. November and December prices held above the September and October troughs, even as sales volumes remained weak. That suggests sellers largely adjusted expectations, while buyers continued to lack confidence to fully re-engage.

Townhomes absorbed the affordability shock earlier. As mortgage rates rose, first-time and move-up buyers were hit hardest. Townhome prices declined faster, now sitting roughly 25–28% below peak, and sales volumes weakened again in 2025. In this segment, affordability — not supply — remains the primary constraint.

What 2026 May Bring

Looking ahead, 2026 will be shaped by the same forces that defined the past two years: mortgage rates, household cash flow, employment stability, and consumer confidence. Inventory will remain a key variable — a renewed surge in listings without a corresponding pickup in demand would likely reintroduce downward pressure on prices.

Broader economic uncertainty also matters. Ongoing trade friction between Canada and the U.S. weighs on business investment and job confidence, which ultimately feeds back into housing demand.

Based on recent history, the most likely base case for 2026 resembles 2025: some early-year momentum, followed by fading activity as affordability constraints reassert themselves. Rents are expected to soften further, reducing investor demand, while the 2026 mortgage renewal wave — as borrowers roll off ultra-low rates — will be closely watched.

Absent a meaningful improvement in affordability, confidence, or a tightening of supply, 2026 is more likely to be another year of adjustment than a clean recovery.

What This Means for Aurora Sellers

For sellers, the environment heading into 2026 demands a very different strategy than earlier in the cycle. Homes priced aspirationally or listed simply to “test the market” are taking longer to sell — if they sell at all.

The listings that continue to transact are those that lead the market on price, present exceptionally well, and launch with a clear strategy from day one. In a buyer-leaning market with elevated inventory, success is less about timing and more about execution. Sellers who adapt can still achieve strong outcomes; those who do not are likely to sit.

This analysis was also featured in NewmarketToday and Aurora local media:
“No crash, no recovery: Aurora & Newmarket housing markets in a grinding reset heading into 2026”
https://www.newmarkettoday.ca/local-news/no-crash-no-recovery-aurora-newmarket-housing-markets-in-grinding-reset-heading-into-2026-11715347

About the Author
Matthew Gizzie is a Realtor based in Newmarket and Aurora, specializing in data-driven housing market analysis across York Region and Simcoe County. He is the co-host of The Economics of Real Estate, a weekly video and podcast focused on how economic trends shape local housing markets. His market commentary has been featured in regional news outlets across York Region.